Yes position
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 30.5%
- Current value
- $7.81K
- Potential payout
- $25.6K
- Potential profit
- $17.79K
- Multiplier
- 3.28x
- User PnL
- -$1.51K
Polymarket Trader
AAVVAA
0xb2c4fe566f6b499a321764113fc591644fd743e8
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $9.9K
- Realized PnL
- $23.39K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.01K
- Potential profit
- $4.01K
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 46.5%
- Current value
- $1.43K
- Potential payout
- $3.07K
- Potential profit
- $1.65K
- Multiplier
- 2.15x
- User PnL
- $57.86
Yes position
Netanyahu out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $15.81
- Potential payout
- $1.98K
- Potential profit
- $1.96K
- Multiplier
- 125.00x
- User PnL
- -$46.19
Yes position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $225
- Potential payout
- $1.67K
- Potential profit
- $1.44K
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$125
Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.3%
- Current value
- $55.04
- Potential payout
- $880.69
- Potential profit
- $825.65
- Multiplier
- 16.00x
- User PnL
- -$22.96
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 31.5%
- Current value
- $277.17
- Potential payout
- $879.89
- Potential profit
- $602.73
- Multiplier
- 3.17x
- User PnL
- $6.17
No position
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $735.09
- Potential profit
- $735.09
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $2.29
- Potential payout
- $655.56
- Potential profit
- $653.26
- Multiplier
- 285.71x
- User PnL
- -$3.61
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.8%
- Current value
- $10.89
- Potential payout
- $622.22
- Potential profit
- $611.33
- Multiplier
- 57.14x
- User PnL
- -$47.11
Yes position
Will Russia enter Svitle by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.8%
- Current value
- $47.36
- Potential payout
- $403.07
- Potential profit
- $355.71
- Multiplier
- 8.51x
- User PnL
- -$2.64
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $333.33
- Potential profit
- $333.33
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.5%
- Current value
- $6.32
- Potential payout
- $258.06
- Potential profit
- $251.74
- Multiplier
- 40.82x
- User PnL
- -$1.68
No position
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $169.24
- Potential profit
- $169.24
- User PnL
- -$9
No position
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 2.8%
- Current value
- $3.27
- Potential payout
- $118.91
- Potential profit
- $115.64
- Multiplier
- 36.36x
- User PnL
- -$7.73
Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
Ends Jun 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $11.72
- Potential payout
- $93.75
- Potential profit
- $82.03
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$3.28
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $76.66
- Potential profit
- $76.66
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
Will King Charles's remarks not air?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $62.71
- Potential profit
- $62.71
- User PnL
- -$3
Yes position
Iran leadership change by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.1%
- Current value
- $0.44
- Potential payout
- $41.67
- Potential profit
- $41.23
- Multiplier
- 95.24x
- User PnL
- -$9.56
No position
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 8%
- Current value
- $3.08
- Potential payout
- $38.46
- Potential profit
- $35.38
- Multiplier
- 12.50x
- User PnL
- -$1.92
No position
Will Bernie Sanders say "Billion" or "Billionaire" 5+ times in Michigan?
Ends May 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $33.52
- Potential profit
- $33.52
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
Will Keir Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $28.44
- Potential profit
- $28.44
- User PnL
- -$4.83
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 27?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $27.78
- Potential profit
- $27.78
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $27.46
- Potential profit
- $27.46
- User PnL
- -$7
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.45K
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.38K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.94K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $722.12
Yes position
Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Feb 21-28?
Ends Feb 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $426.15
Yes position
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 7-14?
Ends Mar 14, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $271.03
Yes position
Will Elon tweet 875-899 times Feb 7-14?
Ends Feb 14, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $149.33
Yes position
Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Feb 14-21?
Ends Feb 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $142.24
Yes position
Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Feb 28 - March 7?
Ends Mar 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $135.22
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $115.74
Yes position
Will Elon tweet 650-674 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?
Ends Feb 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $84.56
No position
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Jan 17-24?
Ends Jan 24, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $79.52
Yes position
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?
Ends Jan 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $54.19
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $53.83
No position
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 21-28?
Ends Mar 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $50.03
Yes position
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $49.14
Yes position
Will King Charles say "Colony" during the joint meeting of Congress?
Ends Apr 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $47
Yes position
Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?
Ends Feb 14, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $42.16
Yes position
Will Elon tweet 130–144 times June 20–27?
Ends Jun 27, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $36.21
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?
Ends Jun 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.15
No position
Will Trump make English the national language?
Ends Feb 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.5
Yes position
Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?
Ends Mar 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $32.24
No position
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 7+ times during events with South African President on May 21?
Ends May 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.67
No position
Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 24-31?
Ends Jan 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30.39
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?Yes 0.9% 333.33 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?Yes 0.9% 322.22 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Yes 6.7% 223.88 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?Yes 3.1% 258.06 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Yes 45% 62.75 shares
- Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?No 5.5% 54.11 shares
- Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?No 5.2% 115.13 shares
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by December 31?No 9.3% 53.76 shares
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?No 13% 38.46 shares
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by December 31?No 9.2% 65.15 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?Yes 17% 17.65 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?Yes 24% 70.83 shares