Polymarket Trader

MARW-2026-Piotr

0xb3265ed7799fe1c1102b77ad50d20bf51a79d18b

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $304.51
Realized PnL: $1.02K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 6.3%
Current value: $18.9
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $281.1
Multiplier: 15.87x
User PnL: -$12.75

Yes position

Will there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 2.8%
Current value: $6.88
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $243.13
Multiplier: 36.36x
User PnL: -$20.63

Yes position

Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 1.6%
Current value: $1.94
Potential payout: $125
Potential profit: $123.06
Multiplier: 64.52x
User PnL: -$8.06

Yes position

Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $1.6
Potential payout: $110
Potential profit: $108.41
Multiplier: 68.97x
User PnL: -$8.41

Yes position

Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$17.1

Under position

World Cup: Total Tournament Goals O/U 264.5

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $4.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $95.5
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: -$14.5

Yes position

Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $12.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $87.5
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$12.5

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 13.7%
Current value: $13.65
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $86.35
Multiplier: 7.33x
User PnL: -$2.45

No position

Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?

Ends Sep 6, 2026

Implied probability: 48%
Current value: $48
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $52
Multiplier: 2.08x
User PnL: -$12

Yes position

Will Algeria reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $8.5
Potential payout: $99.99
Potential profit: $91.49
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$0.46

Yes position

Will USA finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 2%
Current value: $1.8
Potential payout: $90
Potential profit: $88.2
Multiplier: 50.00x
User PnL: -$8.1

No position

Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 70%
Current value: $59.5
Potential payout: $85
Potential profit: $25.5
Multiplier: 1.43x
User PnL: -$0

Yes position

Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 19%
Current value: $15.2
Potential payout: $80
Potential profit: $64.8
Multiplier: 5.26x
User PnL: $0.8

Yes position

Will Reece James score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 27%
Current value: $18.9
Potential payout: $70
Potential profit: $51.1
Multiplier: 3.70x
User PnL: $9.1

No position

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 43.5%
Current value: $28.28
Potential payout: $65
Potential profit: $36.73
Multiplier: 2.30x
User PnL: -$2.27

Yes position

Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 9.7%
Current value: $6.31
Potential payout: $65
Potential profit: $58.7
Multiplier: 10.31x
User PnL: $1.1

No position

Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $65
Potential profit: $65
User PnL: -$30.05

No position

Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $65
Potential profit: $65
User PnL: -$29.9

Yes position

Will Pervis Estupiñán score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 15%
Current value: $9
Potential payout: $60
Potential profit: $51
Multiplier: 6.67x
User PnL: -$1.2

Yes position

Will Lisandro Martínez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 23%
Current value: $13.8
Potential payout: $60
Potential profit: $46.2
Multiplier: 4.35x
User PnL: $4.05

Yes position

Will Marc Cucurella score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 24.5%
Current value: $14.7
Potential payout: $60
Potential profit: $45.3
Multiplier: 4.08x
User PnL: $4.5

Yes position

Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $59.99
Potential profit: $59.99
User PnL: -$10.2

Yes position

Will Marquinhos score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 24.5%
Current value: $13.48
Potential payout: $55
Potential profit: $41.53
Multiplier: 4.08x
User PnL: $3.57

Yes position

Will Kim Min-jae score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 12.9%
Current value: $7.1
Potential payout: $55
Potential profit: $47.91
Multiplier: 7.75x
User PnL: -$2.81

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Lakers position

NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets

Ends May 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $112.29

Yes position

Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $88

No position

Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $73

Yes position

Will Real Sociedad win Copa Del Rey?

Ends Apr 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $70

Yes position

Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $61.2

Yes position

Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (January 25)

Ends Jan 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $51.5

No position

Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?

Ends Apr 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $49.6

Under 5.5 position

NHL Playoffs: Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Total Games O/U 5.5

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $49.6

Yes position

Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" this week?

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $49.49

No position

Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 22?

Ends Mar 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $39.9

No position

Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $39.9

No position

Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $39.2

No position

Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22?

Ends Feb 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $34.65

Habs position

NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Canadiens vs. Lightning

Ends May 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30

Over 5.5 position

NBA Playoffs: Rockets vs. Lakers Total Games O/U 5.5

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30

No position

Will Canada win the 2026 IIHF World Championship?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30

Under 5.5 position

NBA Playoffs: Knicks vs. 76ers Total Games O/U 5.5

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.2

Yes position

Will Trump say "Six Seven" in April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.6

No position

Will Hoffenheim finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standings?

Ends May 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22

Yes position

Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (January 18)

Ends Jan 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20

Flyers position

NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Penguins vs. Flyers

Ends May 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.68

Yes position

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.5

No position

Will Lecce be relegated from Serie A after the 2025-26 season?

Ends May 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.5

No position

Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.85

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

CD Coquimbo Unido vs. O'Higgins FC: O/U 2.5

Over 46.2% 200 shares
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?

Yes 46% 200 shares
CD Coquimbo Unido vs. O'Higgins FC: O/U 2.5

Over 49.4% 200 shares
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?

Yes 47% 200 shares
Will Declan Rice score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 34% 25.99 shares
Will Yoane Wissa score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 44% 25 shares
Will Vitinha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 55% 6.55 shares
Will Granit Xhaka score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 39% 25 shares
Will Che Adams score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 40% 25 shares
Will New Zealand finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

Yes 59% 25 shares
Will Lisandro Martínez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 17% 15 shares
Will Lisandro Martínez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 16% 45 shares