Yes position
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $488.74
- Potential payout
- $325.83K
- Potential profit
- $325.34K
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- $162.91
Polymarket Trader
caviaro
@CKontad
0xb36b96950b467e10fd4f5504fd659ec9961e7804
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $3.21K
- Realized PnL
- $5.54K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $470.72
- Potential payout
- $313.81K
- Potential profit
- $313.34K
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- $156.91
Yes position
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $443.12
- Potential payout
- $295.41K
- Potential profit
- $294.97K
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- $147.71
Yes position
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $438.61
- Potential payout
- $292.41K
- Potential profit
- $291.97K
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- $146.2
Yes position
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $431.99
- Potential payout
- $287.99K
- Potential profit
- $287.56K
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- $144
Yes position
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $123.07
- Potential payout
- $246.14K
- Potential profit
- $246.02K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$123.07
Yes position
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $97.35
- Potential payout
- $194.69K
- Potential profit
- $194.6K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$97.35
Yes position
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $76.08
- Potential payout
- $152.16K
- Potential profit
- $152.08K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$76.08
Yes position
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $70.6
- Potential payout
- $141.19K
- Potential profit
- $141.12K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$70.6
Yes position
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $171.76
- Potential payout
- $114.5K
- Potential profit
- $114.33K
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- $57.25
Yes position
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $56.47
- Potential payout
- $112.94K
- Potential profit
- $112.89K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$56.47
Yes position
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $46.01
- Potential payout
- $92.02K
- Potential profit
- $91.97K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$46.01
Yes position
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $131.6
- Potential payout
- $87.74K
- Potential profit
- $87.6K
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- $43.87
Yes position
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $89.1
- Potential payout
- $59.4K
- Potential profit
- $59.31K
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- $29.7
Yes position
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $27.88
- Potential payout
- $55.77K
- Potential profit
- $55.74K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$27.88
Yes position
Will Daniel Quintero win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $46.45K
- Potential profit
- $46.45K
- User PnL
- -$46.45
Yes position
Will Enrique Peñalosa win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $42.17K
- Potential profit
- $42.17K
- User PnL
- -$42.17
Yes position
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $38.83K
- Potential profit
- $38.83K
- User PnL
- -$38.83
Yes position
Will Mauricio Cárdenas win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $35.08K
- Potential profit
- $35.08K
- User PnL
- -$35.08
Yes position
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $50.98
- Potential payout
- $33.98K
- Potential profit
- $33.93K
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- $16.99
Yes position
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $33.07K
- Potential profit
- $33.07K
- User PnL
- -$33.07
Yes position
Will Juan Carlos Pinzón win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $19K
- Potential profit
- $19K
- User PnL
- -$19
Yes position
Will Juan Manuel Galán win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $18.65K
- Potential profit
- $18.65K
- User PnL
- -$18.65
Yes position
Will Gustavo Bolívar win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $16.78K
- Potential profit
- $16.78K
- User PnL
- -$16.78
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.05K
Yes position
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- $388.43
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $373.15
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $338.29
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $273.07
Yes position
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- $260
Yes position
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- $250.2
No position
Based FDV above $200M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $234.8
Yes position
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- $200.37
Yes position
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- $200
Yes position
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?
Ends Dec 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Multiplier
- 222.22x
- User PnL
- $190.98
Yes position
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- $190.83
Yes position
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- $169.23
Yes position
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- $157.06
Yes position
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- $151.39
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $149.63
Yes position
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $140.04
Yes position
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- $130.86
Yes position
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- $129.04
Yes position
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $124.44
Yes position
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $120.87
Yes position
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?
Ends Dec 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Multiplier
- 222.22x
- User PnL
- $117.32
Yes position
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- $100
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $100
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?Yes 46% 1,304.35 shares
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes 58% 185.18 shares
- Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes 72.1% 200 shares
- Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes 0.2% 11,695 shares
- Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?Yes 55% 535.71 shares
- Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?Yes 56% 535.71 shares
- Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White SoxAtlanta Braves 53% 9.8 shares
- Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes 20% 100 shares
- Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes 40% 100 shares
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes 86% 23.26 shares
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes 54% 185.19 shares
- Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes 31% 161.29 shares