Polymarket Trader

Orion-Pax

0xb39177def1c005b4751bad4479e9139684273b18

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $485.77
Realized PnL: $3.76K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $238.78
Potential payout: $296.62
Potential profit: $57.84
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: -$11.22

Yes position

Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $240.96
Potential profit: $240.96
User PnL: -$200

Yes position

Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $195.83
Potential profit: $195.83
User PnL: -$150

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 25.9%
Current value: $43.8
Potential payout: $169.43
Potential profit: $125.63
Multiplier: 3.87x
User PnL: $3.8

Yes position

Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $148.15
Potential profit: $148.15
User PnL: -$40

Yes position

Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 39.5%
Current value: $46.06
Potential payout: $116.61
Potential profit: $70.55
Multiplier: 2.53x
User PnL: $16.06

Yes position

Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $108.7
Potential profit: $108.7
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 16.1%
Current value: $15.89
Potential payout: $99.01
Potential profit: $83.12
Multiplier: 6.23x
User PnL: $5.89

Yes position

Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $98.48
Potential profit: $98.48
User PnL: -$80

Yes position

Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $89.29
Potential profit: $89.29
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $86.25
Potential profit: $86.25
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Will France vs. Sweden end in a draw?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $83.33
Potential profit: $83.33
User PnL: -$15

Yes position

Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $76.92
Potential profit: $76.92
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 35.2%
Current value: $26.7
Potential payout: $75.95
Potential profit: $49.25
Multiplier: 2.84x
User PnL: $6.7

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 20.4%
Current value: $13.42
Potential payout: $65.64
Potential profit: $52.22
Multiplier: 4.89x
User PnL: -$6.58

Yes position

Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $63.26
Potential profit: $63.26
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 44.2%
Current value: $25.45
Potential payout: $57.64
Potential profit: $32.19
Multiplier: 2.27x
User PnL: $5.45

Yes position

Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 62.5%
Current value: $35.4
Potential payout: $56.63
Potential profit: $21.24
Multiplier: 1.60x
User PnL: -$4.6

Yes position

Will Spain vs. Austria end in a draw?

Ends Jul 2, 2026

Implied probability: 17.9%
Current value: $9.93
Potential payout: $55.56
Potential profit: $45.63
Multiplier: 5.60x
User PnL: -$0.07

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 18.1%
Current value: $9.97
Potential payout: $55.25
Potential profit: $45.28
Multiplier: 5.54x
User PnL: -$0.03

Yes position

Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $52.91
Potential profit: $52.91
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw?

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $52.63
Potential profit: $52.63
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will England vs. DR Congo end in a draw?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $52.63
Potential profit: $52.63
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 39.4%
Current value: $20.39
Potential payout: $51.81
Potential profit: $31.42
Multiplier: 2.54x
User PnL: $0.39

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?

Ends Sep 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.12K

Yes position

No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?

Ends Jul 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $469.56

Yes position

No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting?

Ends Jun 18, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $330.57

Yes position

Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals?

Ends Jun 23, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $302.44

Yes position

No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting?

Ends May 7, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $170.14

Yes position

Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $158.74

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?

Ends Oct 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $146.43

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $131.78

Yes position

Will France win on 2026-06-16?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $122.77

Yes position

Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?

Ends Oct 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $107.53

Yes position

Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?

Ends Dec 8, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $93.06

Yes position

Will Trump save TikTok in first week?

Ends Jan 27, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $66.03

Yes position

Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60.82

Yes position

Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $59.92

Yes position

Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $52.43

Yes position

Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $51.22

Yes position

Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $48.97

Yes position

Will Shou Chew attend presidential inauguration?

Ends Jan 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $48.52

No position

Will Supreme Court delay the Tiktok ban?

Ends Jan 19, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.02

Yes position

Will Trump say "America first" during his inauguration speech?

Ends Feb 3, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $39.22

Yes position

Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?

Ends Dec 30, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.94

No position

Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?

Ends Nov 30, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.45

Yes position

Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.15

Yes position

No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting?

Ends Mar 19, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $34.03

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 35.3% 28.33 shares
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 18.1% 55.25 shares
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Yes 81% 61.73 shares
Will Belgium vs. Senegal end in a draw?

Yes 77.1% 33.33 shares
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Yes 80% 125 shares
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?

Yes 54% 37.04 shares
Will Spain vs. Austria end in a draw?

Yes 18% 55.56 shares
Will Belgium vs. Senegal end in a draw?

Yes 30% 33.33 shares
Will England vs. DR Congo end in a draw?

Yes 19% 52.63 shares
Will France win on 2026-06-30?

Yes 98.2% 25.97 shares
Will France vs. Sweden end in a draw?

Yes 18% 83.33 shares
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?

Yes 83% 240.96 shares