Schnorrer

Implied probability: 13%
Current value: $2.08
Potential payout: $16
Potential profit: $13.92
Multiplier: 7.69x
User PnL: -$3.6

Yes position

Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?

Implied probability: 33.5%
Current value: $5.35
Potential payout: $15.97
Potential profit: $10.62
Multiplier: 2.99x
User PnL: -$0.56

No position

Will Drake have a #1 hit in the US in June?

Implied probability: 84.5%
Current value: $11.85
Potential payout: $14.03
Potential profit: $2.17
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $0.07

Yes position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 12%
Current value: $1.59
Potential payout: $13.27
Potential profit: $11.68
Multiplier: 8.33x
User PnL: -$0.64

Yes position

Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?

Implied probability: 65%
Current value: $6.64
Potential payout: $10.21
Potential profit: $3.57
Multiplier: 1.54x
User PnL: $0.03

No position

Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 24%
Current value: $2.38
Potential payout: $9.91
Potential profit: $7.53
Multiplier: 4.17x
User PnL: -$0.24

Yes position

Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 21.5%
Current value: $2.04
Potential payout: $9.5
Potential profit: $7.46
Multiplier: 4.65x
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June?

Implied probability: 76%
Current value: $6.1
Potential payout: $8.03
Potential profit: $1.93
Multiplier: 1.32x
User PnL: $0.12

Yes position

Will Al Carns be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?

Implied probability: 12%
Current value: $0.96
Potential payout: $8.01
Potential profit: $7.05
Multiplier: 8.33x
User PnL: $0.08

No position

Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30?

Implied probability: 21.5%
Current value: $1.72
Potential payout: $8.01
Potential profit: $6.29
Multiplier: 4.65x
User PnL: -$0.92

No position

Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?

Implied probability: 75%
Current value: $6
Potential payout: $8
Potential profit: $2
Multiplier: 1.33x
User PnL: -$0.62

Yes position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 26.5%
Current value: $2.12
Potential payout: $8
Potential profit: $5.88
Multiplier: 3.77x
User PnL: -$0.04

No position

Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $6.68
Potential payout: $8
Potential profit: $1.32
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $0.04

Yes position

Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 41%
Current value: $3.28
Potential payout: $8
Potential profit: $4.72
Multiplier: 2.44x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 53.5%
Current value: $4.28
Potential payout: $8
Potential profit: $3.72
Multiplier: 1.87x
User PnL: -$0.12

Yes position

Yoon out of custody before 2027?

Implied probability: 14.1%
Current value: $1.12
Potential payout: $8
Potential profit: $6.88
Multiplier: 7.12x
User PnL: -$0.49

No position

Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31?

Implied probability: 82.5%
Current value: $6.6
Potential payout: $8
Potential profit: $1.4
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: -$0.12

No position

Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 79%
Current value: $6.32
Potential payout: $8
Potential profit: $1.68
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: $0.08

Yes position

Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in June 2026?

Implied probability: 13%
Current value: $1.04
Potential payout: $8
Potential profit: $6.96
Multiplier: 7.69x
User PnL: $0.08

Yes position

Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 36%
Current value: $2.88
Potential payout: $8
Potential profit: $5.12
Multiplier: 2.78x
User PnL: $0.08

Yes position

U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $0.67
Potential payout: $7.93
Potential profit: $7.26
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$0.26

No position

Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70?

Ends Nov 19, 2026

Implied probability: 39%
Current value: $3.05
Potential payout: $7.81
Potential profit: $4.77
Multiplier: 2.56x
User PnL: $0.23

No position

Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 38.5%
Current value: $3
Potential payout: $7.78
Potential profit: $4.78
Multiplier: 2.60x
User PnL: $0.04

No position

New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?

Implied probability: 46%
Current value: $3.21
Potential payout: $6.98
Potential profit: $3.77
Multiplier: 2.17x
User PnL: -$0

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $161.76

No position

Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $119.51

Yes position

Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30?

Implied probability: 6.6%
Multiplier: 15.15x
User PnL: $92.45

Yes position

Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $83.56

No position

Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?

Implied probability: 35%
Multiplier: 2.86x
User PnL: $73.18

Yes position

GTA 6 launch postponed again?

Ends Nov 19, 2026

Implied probability: 8.5%
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: $73.06

No position

Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $66.62

Yes position

Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $66.4

No position

Anthropic IPO before 2027?

Implied probability: 26%
Multiplier: 3.85x
User PnL: $60.68

Yes position

Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $59.32

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 March 16-22?

Ends Mar 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $57.54

Yes position

Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $51.08

Yes position

AI bubble burst in 2026?

Implied probability: 19.8%
Multiplier: 5.06x
User PnL: $49.43

No position

Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $48.1

Yes position

Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: $47.22

No position

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $45.86

Yes position

Gemini 3.2 released by May 8, 2026?

Ends May 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $43.32

No position

Will Putin visit China by May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $43.19

Yes position

Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $42.7

No position

Will Drake feature Future on ICEMAN?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $42.12

Yes position

Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: $39.87

Yes position

Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $39.64

Yes position

Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $37.03

No position

Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3?