Polymarket Trader

riseandshine

@arkine_eth

0xb3f901cd6eb8d9c551929393db65f42ab7ff781b

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $5.6
Realized PnL: $293.66
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $1
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $2K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $999.5
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.5

Yes position

Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $1.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $998.5
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: $0.5

Yes position

Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $1.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $998.5
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: $0.5

Yes position

OpenGradient FDV above $1B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$440

Yes position

Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$0.5

Yes position

Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$0.5

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Frankenstein win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$0.5

Yes position

Will The Secret Agent win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$0.5

Yes position

Will Sentimental Value win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $499.99
Potential profit: $499.99
User PnL: -$0.5

Yes position

Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $499.99
Potential profit: $499.99
User PnL: -$0.5

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?

Ends Mar 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $499.98
Potential profit: $499.98
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?

Ends Mar 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $495.87
Potential profit: $495.87
User PnL: -$0.99

Bilibili Gaming position

Valorant: Bilibili Gaming vs FunPlus Phoenix (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Stage 1

Ends May 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $250
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200.01
Potential profit: $200.01
User PnL: -$2

No position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $1.1
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $198.9
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$0.9

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$8

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?

Ends Mar 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$0.2

No position

Will the DHS shutdown last 21 days or more?

Ends Mar 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$2

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $92.54

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $50.31

Yes position

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.6%
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: $31.67

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.78

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $20

No position

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 99.5%
User PnL: $13.3

No position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.7

Yes position

US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $8.41

Yes position

Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $8.36

No position

Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.19

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by May 24?

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $6

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 24.5%
Multiplier: 4.08x
User PnL: $2.17

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 75.5%
Multiplier: 1.32x
User PnL: $2

Yes position

Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 11.5%
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: $2

Yes position

Will Ghost of Yotei win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?

Ends Dec 11, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.71

No position

Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 30?

Ends Dec 1, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.68

No position

Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.4

Yes position

Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.99

No position

Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Multiplier: 333.33x
User PnL: $0.89

No position

Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.79

Yes position

Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31?

Ends Nov 1, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.7

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.57

Yes position

Will Sam Altman be the #1 searched person on Google this year?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.5

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

No 91% 700 shares
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Yes 76% 200 shares
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

No 78.2% 200 shares
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 8% 200 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

No 78.5% 800 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Yes 36.1% 199.92 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

No 56% 800 shares
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 14.1% 200 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Yes 23% 200 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

No 48.3% 600 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Yes 15% 200 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Yes 19% 200 shares