Polymarket Trader

0xb4011DbcbDaD4761E61A99041Fe278BB82BF3D11-1764661126704

0xb4011dbcbdad4761e61a99041fe278bb82bf3d11

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $210.69
Realized PnL: $150.32
Win rate: 86.7%
Open positions: 12
Closed positions: 15
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - December 6, 3AM ET

Ends Dec 6, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $370
Potential profit: $370
User PnL: -$34.3

No position

GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?

Ends Jul 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $50.97
Potential payout: $51
Potential profit: $0.03
User PnL: $0.82

No position

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 90%
Current value: $45
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $5
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: $0

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 95.9%
Current value: $47.93
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $2.08
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: -$0.08

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - December 6, 4AM ET

Ends Dec 6, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $30
User PnL: -$13.8

Yes position

GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?

Ends Jul 9, 2026

Implied probability: 99.1%
Current value: $29.73
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $0.27
User PnL: $0.61

No position

GTA 6 launch postponed again?

Ends Nov 19, 2026

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $27.15
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $2.85
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $0.05

Vitality position

Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $29.49
Potential profit: $29.49
User PnL: -$13.51

No position

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 99.1%
Current value: $9.91
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $0.09
User PnL: $0.02

Yes position

Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$3.86

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - December 6, 7AM ET

Ends Dec 6, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$1.7

Yes position

GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?

Ends Jul 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1
Potential profit: $1
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.5

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Team Falcons position

Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $100.06

Spirit position

Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.2

Team Falcons position

Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 9AM ET

Ends Dec 2, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.14

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 8AM ET

Ends Dec 3, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.5

G2 position

Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.67

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 10AM ET

Ends Dec 2, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.63

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - December 6, 3AM ET

Ends Dec 6, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.5

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 12PM ET

Ends Dec 2, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.26

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - December 6, 6AM ET

Ends Dec 6, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.08

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - December 6, 8AM ET

Ends Dec 6, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.05

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - December 6, 8AM ET

Ends Dec 6, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.05

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 12PM ET

Ends Dec 2, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.03

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 4PM ET

Ends Dec 3, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.84

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 8AM ET

Ends Dec 3, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?

Yes 96.6% 10 shares
GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?

Yes 96.6% 10 shares
GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?

Yes 98% 10 shares
GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?

No 99.3% 50 shares
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?

No 98.9% 10 shares
GTA 6 launch postponed again?

No 91% 10 shares
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?

No 96% 50 shares
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?

No 90% 50 shares
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs

Team Falcons 60% 250.15 shares
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs

Vitality 24% 20 shares
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs

Vitality 46% 5 shares
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs

Vitality 40% 20 shares