Yes position
Gavin Newsom arrested by Friday?
Ends Jun 13, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $5K
- User PnL
- -$15
Polymarket Trader
sh31349
0xb40d44872572ca462d08e6baba780e00af091474
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $2.36K
- Realized PnL
- $2.17K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
Ends Aug 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 84%
- Current value
- $1.44K
- Potential payout
- $1.71K
- Potential profit
- $273.95
- Multiplier
- 1.19x
- User PnL
- $188.25
Yes position
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% before August?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.34K
- Potential profit
- $1.34K
- User PnL
- -$29
Yes position
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $751.19
- Potential profit
- $751.19
- User PnL
- -$536.63
Yes position
Will Israeli troops enter Beirut by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $642.86
- Potential profit
- $642.86
- User PnL
- -$40
No position
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
Ends Aug 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.9%
- Current value
- $257.75
- Potential payout
- $303.78
- Potential profit
- $46.02
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $1.4
Yes position
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $276.33
- Potential profit
- $276.33
- User PnL
- -$38
No position
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.7%
- Current value
- $252.74
- Potential payout
- $269.88
- Potential profit
- $17.14
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $4.68
No position
Will a Republican win the popular vote and the Presidency?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $236.23
- Potential profit
- $236.23
- User PnL
- -$155.91
Yes position
Will Trump make no endorsement for NYC Mayor?
Ends Nov 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $220.66
- Potential profit
- $220.66
- User PnL
- -$210.33
No position
Trump gets more black voters than in 2020?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $201.34
- Potential profit
- $201.34
- User PnL
- -$69.47
Yes position
Will Trump's approval rating hit 40% in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $195.97
- Potential profit
- $195.97
- User PnL
- -$81.84
No position
Will Trump end DOGE in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $163
- Potential profit
- $163
- User PnL
- -$140
Yes position
Will a Democrat win Iowa Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $155.56
- Potential profit
- $155.56
- User PnL
- -$28
No position
Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $135.76
- Potential payout
- $151.69
- Potential profit
- $15.93
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $0.76
Yes position
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 44.5% on June 20?
Ends Jun 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $151.25
- Potential profit
- $151.25
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 61.5%
- Current value
- $85.42
- Potential payout
- $138.89
- Potential profit
- $53.47
- Multiplier
- 1.63x
- User PnL
- -$14.58
Yes position
Will Israel annex West Bank territory in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $137.11
- Potential profit
- $137.11
- User PnL
- -$2.5
Yes position
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $133.33
- Potential profit
- $133.33
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
Will Trump's approval rating hit 40% before August?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $114.46
- Potential profit
- $114.46
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 6% and 9% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Ends Jun 24, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $113.24
- Potential profit
- $113.24
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Current value
- $93.4
- Potential payout
- $113.22
- Potential profit
- $19.81
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- $5.09
Yes position
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 9.4%
- Current value
- $10.16
- Potential payout
- $108.7
- Potential profit
- $98.53
- Multiplier
- 10.70x
- User PnL
- $0.16
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $86.19
- Potential payout
- $95.24
- Potential profit
- $9.05
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $6.19
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
Ends Jun 24, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $925.88
Yes position
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be greater than 9% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Ends Jun 24, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $291.44
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $91.82
No position
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $85.46
Yes position
Will Tim Walz be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?
Ends Aug 22, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $63.07
No position
Will Biden resign before the election?
Ends Nov 4, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $62.62
Yes position
Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be less than 5%?
Ends Jun 24, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $58.65
No position
Will RFK Jr. debate Biden/Trump?
Ends Nov 4, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $57.18
No position
US congress stock trading ban in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $51.8
No position
Xi Jinping out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $50.38
Yes position
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election?
Ends Apr 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $48.08
No position
Will Trump & Elon reduce the deficit in 2025?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $39.12
No position
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
Ends Apr 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $38.83
No position
US strike on Colombia by March 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $36.45
Yes position
Will Biden finish his term?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.43
No position
Will Biden announce resignation by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.68
No position
Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be between 20% and 25%?
Ends Jun 24, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.48
No position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon before November?
Ends Oct 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.53
Yes position
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
Ends Aug 19, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.07
No position
JD Vance positive favorability before the election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.91
No position
Maduro out before September?
Ends Aug 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.56
No position
Mike Waltz out of Trump administration before May?
Ends Apr 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.21
No position
Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $23.76
No position
Tim Walz replaced as Democratic VP nominee?
Ends Nov 4, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.96
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Yes 82.9% 373.89 shares
- Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Yes 82.1% 670.15 shares
- Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026?No 91% 344.77 shares
- Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?No 91% 153.84 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No 99.8% 44.94 shares
- Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by December 31?No 89.7% 49.38 shares
- Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?Yes 10.3% 99.48 shares
- Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?No 45% 39.02 shares
- Iran leadership change by June 30?No 99% 49.42 shares
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?No 93.1% 269.87 shares
- Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?No 83.9% 118.76 shares
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?No 93.1% 50 shares