No position
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.3%
- Current value
- $57.68K
- Potential payout
- $59.93K
- Potential profit
- $2.25K
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $3.05K
Polymarket Trader
Poligarch
0xb40e89677d59665d5188541ad860450a6e2a7cc9
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $82.53K
- Realized PnL
- $141.24K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.3%
- Current value
- $9.14K
- Potential payout
- $9.39K
- Potential profit
- $258.34
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $2.2K
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.8%
- Current value
- $211.68
- Potential payout
- $7.7K
- Potential profit
- $7.49K
- Multiplier
- 36.36x
- User PnL
- -$1.52K
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.5%
- Current value
- $92.54
- Potential payout
- $3.64K
- Potential profit
- $3.55K
- Multiplier
- 39.37x
- User PnL
- -$255.59
Yes position
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 69.5%
- Current value
- $2.22K
- Potential payout
- $3.2K
- Potential profit
- $975.42
- Multiplier
- 1.44x
- User PnL
- $414.15
No position
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 30.5%
- Current value
- $899.21
- Potential payout
- $2.95K
- Potential profit
- $2.05K
- Multiplier
- 3.28x
- User PnL
- -$246.01
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $386.16
- Potential payout
- $2.86K
- Potential profit
- $2.47K
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$303.37
No position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.5%
- Current value
- $2.73K
- Potential payout
- $2.8K
- Potential profit
- $71.39
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $255.11
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $2.34K
- Potential payout
- $2.71K
- Potential profit
- $365.32
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $669.62
No position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 88%
- Current value
- $1.66K
- Potential payout
- $1.89K
- Potential profit
- $226.88
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $483.69
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 12%
- Current value
- $215.47
- Potential payout
- $1.8K
- Potential profit
- $1.58K
- Multiplier
- 8.33x
- User PnL
- -$534.32
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 21.5%
- Current value
- $339.58
- Potential payout
- $1.58K
- Potential profit
- $1.24K
- Multiplier
- 4.65x
- User PnL
- -$282.78
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 78.5%
- Current value
- $983.22
- Potential payout
- $1.25K
- Potential profit
- $269.29
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- $252.35
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $998.99
- Potential profit
- $998.99
- User PnL
- -$399.78
Yes position
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $983.01
- Potential profit
- $983.01
- User PnL
- -$108.94
Yes position
Weed rescheduled by June 30?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.5%
- Current value
- $14.21
- Potential payout
- $947.29
- Potential profit
- $933.08
- Multiplier
- 66.67x
- User PnL
- -$163.35
Yes position
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $803.49
- Potential payout
- $918.28
- Potential profit
- $114.78
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $88.95
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $907.39
- Potential payout
- $907.84
- Potential profit
- $0.45
- User PnL
- $28.45
No position
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $106.77
- Potential payout
- $854.16
- Potential profit
- $747.39
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$100.93
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 8%
- Current value
- $65.62
- Potential payout
- $820.28
- Potential profit
- $754.66
- Multiplier
- 12.50x
- User PnL
- -$422.92
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $748.98
- Potential payout
- $750.11
- Potential profit
- $1.13
- User PnL
- $148.95
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 37%
- Current value
- $274.83
- Potential payout
- $742.78
- Potential profit
- $467.95
- Multiplier
- 2.70x
- User PnL
- -$36.27
No position
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $636.47
- Potential payout
- $711.14
- Potential profit
- $74.67
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $33.32
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Current value
- $74.67
- Potential payout
- $711.14
- Potential profit
- $636.47
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- -$7.16
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $13.56K
No position
Will Lady Gaga perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?
Ends Feb 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $9.14K
Yes position
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be orange?
Ends Feb 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $7.88K
Yes position
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?
Ends Feb 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.83K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $6.92K
Yes position
US strikes Iraq by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.69K
No position
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $6.65K
Up position
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 27?
Ends Feb 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $6.35K
Yes position
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be blue?
Ends Feb 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $6.35K
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.19K
Yes position
Will Travis Scott perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?
Ends Feb 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $5.95K
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5?
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $5.73K
Yes position
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $5.47K
No position
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?
Ends Feb 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $5.3K
Yes position
Will the Super Bowl national anthem last between 120 and 130 seconds?
Ends Feb 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4.97K
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.64K
Yes position
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election?
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4.45K
Yes position
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4.17K
No position
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4.04K
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4.01K
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?
Ends Apr 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.84K
No position
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.72K
No position
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.7K
No position
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.7K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Yes 26% 69.5 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Yes 96% 52 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Yes 96.5% 57.3 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Yes 96.6% 40 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Yes 97.7% 80 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?Yes 96% 106.38 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?Yes 97% 761.46 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?Yes 96% 30 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?Yes 74% 10 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?Yes 73% 79.12 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Yes 85% 8.82 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Yes 86% 420 shares