No position
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $247.21
- Potential profit
- $247.21
- User PnL
- -$9.7
Polymarket Trader
TopDog
0xb4283fe51375e14f5ec2401155fb43990c035e88
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $78.26
- Realized PnL
- $242
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 20
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 6.1%
- Current value
- $12.96
- Potential payout
- $214.29
- Potential profit
- $201.32
- Multiplier
- 16.53x
- User PnL
- -$2.04
Yes position
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.2%
- Current value
- $24.3
- Potential payout
- $199.99
- Potential profit
- $175.7
- Multiplier
- 8.23x
- User PnL
- $2.3
Yes position
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $59
- Potential profit
- $59
- User PnL
- -$10.03
Yes position
Nothing Ever Happens: January
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $46.39
- Potential profit
- $46.39
- User PnL
- -$25
Yes position
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 45.5%
- Current value
- $19.4
- Potential payout
- $42.65
- Potential profit
- $23.24
- Multiplier
- 2.20x
- User PnL
- -$0.6
Yes position
Nothing Ever Happens: US Strike Edition
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $39.04
- Potential profit
- $39.04
- User PnL
- -$23.2
No position
Will the Chicago Bears be eliminated in the Divisional Round?
Ends Feb 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $35
- Potential profit
- $35
- User PnL
- -$12.25
Yes position
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $31.25
- Potential profit
- $31.25
- User PnL
- -$5
Bears position
Rams vs. Bears
Ends Jan 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $25.16
- Potential profit
- $25.16
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $24.19
- Potential profit
- $24.19
- User PnL
- -$15
Yes position
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?
Ends Nov 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $22.75
- Potential profit
- $22.75
- User PnL
- -$11
Yes position
Will No Other Choice be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Jan 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $20
- User PnL
- -$2
No position
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 63.5%
- Current value
- $12.7
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $7.3
- Multiplier
- 1.57x
- User PnL
- $2.3
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $19.61
- Potential profit
- $19.61
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will Eva Victor be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Jan 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $16.7
- Potential profit
- $16.7
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 80%
- Current value
- $8.89
- Potential payout
- $11.11
- Potential profit
- $2.22
- Multiplier
- 1.25x
- User PnL
- $1.89
No position
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10.67
- Potential profit
- $10.67
- User PnL
- -$8
Yes position
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7
- Potential profit
- $7
- User PnL
- -$2.84
Yes position
Senator Eichorn guilty of soliciting a child?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.53
- Potential profit
- $4.53
- User PnL
- -$1.81
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Trump lower tariffs on Canada by December 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $87.91
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 61-62°F on March 11?
Ends Mar 11, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.35
Yes position
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.95
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.79
Yes position
Nothing Ever Happens: December
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.8
No position
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10
No position
Will Trump lower tariffs on Canada by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.6
No position
Will a dildo be thrown onto the court at a WNBA game on Friday?
Ends Aug 13, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.1
Yes position
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
Ends Apr 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.9
Yes position
Nothing Ever Happens: MrBeast Edition
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.8
No position
TrumpRX launched by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.7
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.66
Blue Jays position
Blue Jays vs. Dodgers
Ends Nov 6, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.77
Yes position
Trump out as President before GTA VI?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 50.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.98x
- User PnL
- $3.75
No position
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.68
Yes position
Nothing Ever Happens: July
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.61
No position
North Korea missile launch by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.45
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.39
No position
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.3
No position
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.3
No position
Will Trump lower tariffs on Israel next?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.96
Yes position
Will Kamala flip Trump on Polymarket in August?
Ends Aug 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.92
Yes position
Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.7
No position
Will Oracle buy TikTok?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.6
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?Yes 7% 214.29 shares
- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes 46.9% 42.64 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?Yes 25.5% 19.61 shares
- North Korea missile launch by February 28?No 67% 10.45 shares
- Nothing Ever Happens: US Strike EditionYes 63% 19.05 shares
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Yes 63% 11.11 shares
- Russia x Ukraine Peace ParlayYes 24% 60 shares
- US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?No 62% 24.19 shares
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?Yes 67.8% 7.37 shares
- Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?Yes 16% 31.25 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Yes 35% 10.41 shares
- Rams vs. BearsBears 46% 10.87 shares