No position
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $2.5
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $5K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$2.5
Polymarket Trader
stupidguy
0xb4a6c3341ae3390f7060d6db660dbce983b3fe97
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $25.49
- Realized PnL
- $1.21K
- Win rate
- 79.2%
- Open positions
- 4
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.8%
- Current value
- $16.88
- Potential payout
- $351.75
- Potential profit
- $334.87
- Multiplier
- 20.83x
- User PnL
- $1.88
N
No position
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.2%
- Current value
- $3
- Potential payout
- $136.37
- Potential profit
- $133.37
- Multiplier
- 45.45x
- User PnL
- $0
No position
GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?
Ends Jul 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.5%
- Current value
- $3.11
- Potential payout
- $124.26
- Potential profit
- $121.15
- Multiplier
- 40.00x
- User PnL
- $0.11
Resolved Context
Closed positions
PARIVISION position
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Map 3 Winner
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $427.23
No position
US government shutdown Saturday?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $175.21
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $106.39
Yes position
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $83.45
Yes position
Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?
Ends Jul 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $72.97
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?
Ends Dec 5, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $62.34
Yes position
Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?
Ends Jul 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $43.88
Yes position
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $40.46
Yes position
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $37.5
Yes position
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-12-03?
Ends Dec 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $35.99
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?
Ends Dec 5, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $33.48
Yes position
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-12-06?
Ends Dec 6, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.18
Yes position
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.29
Yes position
Will Liverpool vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw?
Ends Dec 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.38
Yes position
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-06?
Ends Dec 6, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $17.66
No position
Will Sentient launch a token in 2025?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.57
MOUZ position
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3)
Ends Dec 5, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.96
No position
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.71
Yes position
Will Sentient launch a token in 2025?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
G2 position
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs G2 (BO3)
Ends Dec 6, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.17
Yes position
Will Arsenal vs. Brentford end in a draw?
Ends Dec 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.17
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in December 2025?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in December 2025?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026?No 2.2% 136.37 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?No 2.4% 124.26 shares
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes 5.3% 93.57 shares
- Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?No 0.1% 3,000 shares
- Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?No 0.1% 2,000 shares
- Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-07?Yes 1% 300 shares
- Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-07?Yes 6% 83.33 shares
- Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?Yes 7% 71.43 shares
- Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?Yes 13% 38.46 shares
- Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?Yes 29% 68.97 shares
- Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?Yes 39% 51.28 shares
- Will Argentina vs. Egypt end in a draw?Yes 6% 66.67 shares