0xB4BA5CA84E9B4818566792Ac3A7c4d0CB6a04cEd-1776194410634

Implied probability: 11%
Current value: $177.57
Potential payout: $1.61K
Potential profit: $1.44K
Multiplier: 9.09x
User PnL: -$30.43

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 19.5%
Current value: $120.06
Potential payout: $617.28
Potential profit: $497.22
Multiplier: 5.14x
User PnL: $20.06

No position

Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 62%
Current value: $362.02
Potential payout: $583.9
Potential profit: $221.88
Multiplier: 1.61x
User PnL: $62.02

Yes position

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

Implied probability: 27.5%
Current value: $137.5
Potential payout: $499.99
Potential profit: $362.49
Multiplier: 3.64x
User PnL: -$42.5

No position

US x Cuba military clash in 2026?

Implied probability: 58%
Current value: $218.87
Potential payout: $377.36
Potential profit: $158.49
Multiplier: 1.72x
User PnL: $18.87

No position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?

Implied probability: 79.4%
Current value: $289.08
Potential payout: $364.32
Potential profit: $75.23
Multiplier: 1.26x
User PnL: $6.29

Yes position

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $276.06
Potential payout: $330.61
Potential profit: $54.55
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $36.06

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?

Implied probability: 92%
Current value: $239.24
Potential payout: $260.04
Potential profit: $20.8
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $39.24

No position

Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30?

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $225.27
Potential payout: $246.2
Potential profit: $20.93
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $25.27

No position

Will Russia enter Myrne by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 81%
Current value: $196.64
Potential payout: $242.77
Potential profit: $46.13
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: -$3.36

Nothing position

Nothing Ever Happens: June

Implied probability: 98.3%
Current value: $228.84
Potential payout: $232.79
Potential profit: $3.96
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $18.84

No position

Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31?

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $210.34
Potential payout: $229.89
Potential profit: $19.54
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $10.35

No position

Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $194.54
Potential payout: $222.33
Potential profit: $27.79
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $94.54

No position

Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 28.5%
Current value: $60.62
Potential payout: $212.77
Potential profit: $152.15
Multiplier: 3.51x
User PnL: -$39.38

No position

Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30?

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $179
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $21
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $3

No position

Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 80.4%
Current value: $160.69
Potential payout: $199.99
Potential profit: $39.3
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: $39.9

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 66.5%
Current value: $91.1
Potential payout: $136.99
Potential profit: $45.89
Multiplier: 1.50x
User PnL: -$8.9

No position

Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?

Implied probability: 73.5%
Current value: $100.16
Potential payout: $136.28
Potential profit: $36.11
Multiplier: 1.36x
User PnL: $0.16

No position

Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31?

Implied probability: 76%
Current value: $100
Potential payout: $131.58
Potential profit: $31.58
Multiplier: 1.32x
User PnL: $0

No position

Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by July 31?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $97.71
Potential payout: $121.38
Potential profit: $23.67
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: -$2.29

No position

Will Russia enter Stavky by June 30?

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $106.03
Potential payout: $118.47
Potential profit: $12.44
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $6.03

No position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Zohran Mamdani by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $108.82
Potential payout: $117.65
Potential profit: $8.82
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $8.82

No position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $105.23
Potential payout: $116.28
Potential profit: $11.05
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $5.23

No position

Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?

Implied probability: 95.4%
Current value: $105.94
Potential payout: $111.11
Potential profit: $5.17
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $5.94

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 95.9%
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $348.25

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $81

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 98.9%
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $38.36

No position

Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.23

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.54

No position

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.67

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 95.9%
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $7.32

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 78.5%
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: $4.88

Yes position

Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 10.5%
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: $2.86

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.82

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.23

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.17

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.13

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.07

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.88

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.82

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.41

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.4

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.33

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down on April 16?

Ends Apr 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.32

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.3

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.3

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.29

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET