Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 30.5%
- Current value
- $57.2
- Potential payout
- $187.56
- Potential profit
- $130.35
- Multiplier
- 3.28x
- User PnL
- $7.2
Polymarket Trader
Pythianity
0xb4c56fec06b1936fdc55bc982b03c19ff022d67e
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $262.71
- Realized PnL
- $439.69
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 15
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $131
- Potential profit
- $131
- User PnL
- -$42.04
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94%
- Current value
- $99.95
- Potential payout
- $106.38
- Potential profit
- $6.44
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- -$0.05
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50.76
- Potential profit
- $50.76
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $43.48
- Potential profit
- $43.48
- User PnL
- -$2
N
No position
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 77.5%
- Current value
- $23.07
- Potential payout
- $29.76
- Potential profit
- $6.7
- Multiplier
- 1.29x
- User PnL
- -$1.93
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 50.5%
- Current value
- $12.88
- Potential payout
- $25.5
- Potential profit
- $12.62
- Multiplier
- 1.98x
- User PnL
- -$2.42
Y
Yes position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $22.41
- Potential payout
- $25.32
- Potential profit
- $2.91
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $2.41
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $22
- Potential profit
- $22
- User PnL
- -$9.9
No position
Trump kiss by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $21.6
- Potential profit
- $21.6
- User PnL
- -$15
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 44.5%
- Current value
- $9.47
- Potential payout
- $21.28
- Potential profit
- $11.81
- Multiplier
- 2.25x
- User PnL
- -$0.53
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20.99
- Potential profit
- $20.99
- User PnL
- -$17
Yes position
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96%
- Current value
- $17.35
- Potential payout
- $18.07
- Potential profit
- $0.72
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $2.35
No position
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?
Ends Jun 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 76%
- Current value
- $11.22
- Potential payout
- $14.75
- Potential profit
- $3.53
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- $1.22
N
No position
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 72.5%
- Current value
- $9.18
- Potential payout
- $12.66
- Potential profit
- $3.48
- Multiplier
- 1.38x
- User PnL
- -$0.82
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.9%
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $123.96
Yes position
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
Ends Dec 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 58.7%
- Multiplier
- 1.71x
- User PnL
- $41.88
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.07
No position
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by November 30?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.68
Yes position
Israel strikes Gaza by October 17?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.75
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.16
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92%
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $17.33
No position
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.86
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23, 2026?
Ends Apr 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.64
No position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.98
No position
French election called by October 17?
Ends Oct 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.54
No position
French election called by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.44
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.86
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $9.28
Yes position
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?
Ends Feb 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.66
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.8
Yes position
Grokipedia released by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.56
No position
Maduro out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.2
No position
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.11
No position
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7
No position
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $6.89
Yes position
U.S. Government Funding Lapse on January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.8
Yes position
Nothing Ever Happens: December
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.35
No position
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.88
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes 79% 25.32 shares
- Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?No 84% 29.76 shares
- Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?No 79% 12.66 shares
- Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026?Yes 83% 18.07 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 51% 24.5 shares
- Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?No 67.8% 14.75 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Yes 47% 21.28 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 94% 106.38 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 60% 50 shares
- Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes 29% 68.97 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 96.1% 132.76 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?No 85% 42.27 shares