0xb4f6...eada

Implied probability: 5.4%
Current value: $56.32
Potential payout: $1.05K
Potential profit: $996.32
Multiplier: 18.69x
User PnL: -$3.68

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 5.4%
Current value: $33.44
Potential payout: $625
Potential profit: $591.56
Multiplier: 18.69x
User PnL: -$1.56

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 15.2%
Current value: $65.46
Potential payout: $432.1
Potential profit: $366.64
Multiplier: 6.60x
User PnL: -$4.54

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $8.76
Potential payout: $344.83
Potential profit: $336.08
Multiplier: 39.37x
User PnL: -$83.34

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 98.3%
Current value: $206.19
Potential payout: $209.76
Potential profit: $3.57
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $39.8

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 27.5%
Current value: $41.82
Potential payout: $152.06
Potential profit: $110.25
Multiplier: 3.64x
User PnL: -$6.84

No position

Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $151.57
Potential payout: $151.95
Potential profit: $0.38
User PnL: $1.57

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 19.4%
Current value: $29.32
Potential payout: $151.52
Potential profit: $122.2
Multiplier: 5.17x
User PnL: -$0.68

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 45.5%
Current value: $64.18
Potential payout: $141.05
Potential profit: $76.87
Multiplier: 2.20x
User PnL: -$1.19

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $97.87
Potential payout: $113.14
Potential profit: $15.27
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $5.21

No position

Israel closes its airspace by June 30?

Implied probability: 97.6%
Current value: $105.16
Potential payout: $107.74
Potential profit: $2.59
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $40.63

No position

Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 61.5%
Current value: $58.88
Potential payout: $95.73
Potential profit: $36.86
Multiplier: 1.63x
User PnL: $0.37

No position

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.1%
Current value: $92.47
Potential payout: $93.31
Potential profit: $0.84
User PnL: $2.46

No position

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 47%
Current value: $43
Potential payout: $91.49
Potential profit: $48.49
Multiplier: 2.13x
User PnL: -$16.55

No position

Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $89.05
Potential payout: $89.19
Potential profit: $0.13
User PnL: $0.96

No position

Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $88.45
Potential payout: $88.67
Potential profit: $0.22
User PnL: $0.79

No position

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

Implied probability: 72.5%
Current value: $61.8
Potential payout: $85.24
Potential profit: $23.44
Multiplier: 1.38x
User PnL: $1.79

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?

Implied probability: 98.5%
Current value: $80.17
Potential payout: $81.4
Potential profit: $1.22
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $10.17

No position

Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 89.4%
Current value: $72.1
Potential payout: $80.7
Potential profit: $8.59
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $12.1

No position

Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June?

Implied probability: 98.7%
Current value: $78.12
Potential payout: $79.19
Potential profit: $1.07
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $8.12

No position

World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick?

Implied probability: 78%
Current value: $60
Potential payout: $76.92
Potential profit: $16.92
Multiplier: 1.28x
User PnL: -$0

No position

Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 91.8%
Current value: $70.5
Potential payout: $76.84
Potential profit: $6.34
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $0.51

No position

Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 62%
Current value: $47.2
Potential payout: $76.19
Potential profit: $28.99
Multiplier: 1.61x
User PnL: -$12.8

Yes position

Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $60.38
Potential payout: $75.01
Potential profit: $14.63
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: $0.37

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $618.69

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $152.27

Yes position

Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $123.82

Yes position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $122.98

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $106.56

Yes position

Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $91.92

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $69.33

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $62.27

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6?

Ends Jun 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $58.89

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET

Ends Jun 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $54.77

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $45.29

Yes position

Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $43.95

No position

Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 14?

Ends Apr 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.15

No position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 28, 2026?

Ends Apr 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.75

No position

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on April 16?

Ends Apr 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.17

No position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.71

Knicks position

Spread: Spurs (-20.5)

Ends Jun 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.24

Yes position

Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.23

Yes position

Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 16?

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.52

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?