Yes position
Will any AI reach $50k in Alpha Arena Season 1.5 AI trading competition?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.88K
- Potential profit
- $1.88K
- User PnL
- -$150
Polymarket Trader
morganmcg - 5361
0xb52f6fc54ee09624a471c7869d4a154062e2fbfd
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $185.63
- Realized PnL
- $2.88K
- Win rate
- 87.5%
- Open positions
- 9
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?
Ends Dec 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $10.78
- Potential payout
- $1.44K
- Potential profit
- $1.43K
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- -$239.22
Yes position
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $100B and $200B at market close on IPO day?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.55
- Potential payout
- $1.1K
- Potential profit
- $1.1K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$49.45
Yes position
DeepSeek V4 released by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $902.86
- Potential profit
- $902.86
- User PnL
- -$847.6
Yes position
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $747.64
- Potential profit
- $747.64
- User PnL
- -$472.92
Yes position
DeepSeek V4 released by February 28?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $683.35
- Potential profit
- $683.35
- User PnL
- -$300
Yes position
GPT-5.3 released by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $546.07
- Potential profit
- $546.07
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 71.5%
- Current value
- $174.3
- Potential payout
- $243.77
- Potential profit
- $69.47
- Multiplier
- 1.40x
- User PnL
- -$21.64
Yes position
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $169.56
- Potential profit
- $169.56
- User PnL
- -$50
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Tesla announce a Bitcoin purchase before March 1, 2021?
Ends Mar 1, 2021- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $839.8
Yes position
Will DeepSeek’s DeepSeek V3.1 Chat win the NOF1.ai competition?
Ends Oct 24, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $697.73
No position
Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $481.41
Yes position
Will OpenAI’s GPT 5 lose the NOF1.ai competition?
Ends Nov 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $164.04
Yes position
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $130.36
No position
Will any Google Gemini 3 model score at least 1500 on LMArena by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $113.05
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $91.59
Yes position
Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of January 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $62.91
No position
Grok 5 released by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $53.9
No position
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $49.06
Yes position
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $42.22
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $38.12
Yes position
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 30% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.3
Yes position
GPT-5.3 released by February 14, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.72
No position
Will any AI score ≥85% on ARC-AGI-2 by November 3?
Ends Nov 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.23
No position
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.46
Yes position
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.56
Yes position
GPT-5.3 released by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.12
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.09
Yes position
Will the Ethereum 2.0 Genesis Event happen successfully on December 1st, 2020?
Ends Dec 2, 2020- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.04
Yes position
Will Airbnb begin publicly trading before Jan 1, 2021?
Ends Jan 2, 2021- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.36
No position
Will Coinbase begin publicly trading before Jan 1, 2021?
Ends Jan 2, 2021- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.02
Yes position
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Multiplier
- 500.00x
- User PnL
- -$2.39
No position
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated for his second term as President of the USA on Inauguration Day, January 20th, 2021?
Ends Feb 1, 2021- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$5.46
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- DeepSeek V4 released by March 31?Yes 75% 63.47 shares
- Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?Yes 22.4% 212.7 shares
- DeepSeek V4 released by March 15?Yes 69.7% 368.8 shares
- GPT-5.3 released by March 31, 2026?Yes 94.4% 272.42 shares
- Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?Yes 80.4% 243.77 shares
- GPT-5.3 released by March 31, 2026?Yes 91.8% 272.42 shares
- Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?No 72.7% 158.6 shares
- Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?Yes 17.4% 1,437.72 shares
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?Yes 72.4% 403.03 shares
- Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?No 78.6% 367.72 shares
- DeepSeek V4 released by March 15?Yes 57% 378.83 shares
- DeepSeek V4 released by February 28?Yes 43.9% 683.35 shares