Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.4%
- Current value
- $5.01
- Potential payout
- $93.6
- Potential profit
- $88.59
- Multiplier
- 18.69x
- User PnL
- -$4.35
Polymarket Trader
0xb536...6f32
0xb53621b8edbad95d33d7fd677d971b5dbbc26f32
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $14.92
- Realized PnL
- $1.76
- Win rate
- 66.7%
- Open positions
- 6
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 5.2%
- Current value
- $2.22
- Potential payout
- $43.1
- Potential profit
- $40.88
- Multiplier
- 19.42x
- User PnL
- $0.41
Yes position
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.7%
- Current value
- $0.35
- Potential payout
- $7.47
- Potential profit
- $7.12
- Multiplier
- 21.28x
- User PnL
- -$2.34
No position
OpenAI IPO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 74.5%
- Current value
- $4.09
- Potential payout
- $5.49
- Potential profit
- $1.4
- Multiplier
- 1.34x
- User PnL
- $0.85
No position
Will Discord’s market cap be $30B or greater at market close on IPO day?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $1.89
- Potential payout
- $1.89
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $0.11
No position
Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto before 2027?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 96.7%
- Current value
- $1.36
- Potential payout
- $1.4
- Potential profit
- $0.05
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $0.04
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14%
- Multiplier
- 7.14x
- User PnL
- $1.05
No position
Will the government shutdown last 6 days or more?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.25
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.24
No position
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.1%
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $0.16
No position
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.15
No position
Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 81.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $0.14
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- $0.08
No position
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.08
No position
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.08
No position
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $0.04
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.04
No position
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be greater than 520m by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.03
No position
US forces in Venezuela again by January 10, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.02
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.01
No position
US forces in Venezuela again by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Cilia Flores released from custody by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.02
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.05
No position
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.06
Yes position
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026?
Ends Feb 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.07
No position
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.08
Yes position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 19.8%
- Multiplier
- 5.06x
- User PnL
- -$0.09
Yes position
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by June 30, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.1
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.15
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes 4.2% 43.1 shares
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?No 82% 2.38 shares
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?No 80% 2.39 shares
- Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?No 97.4% 1.67 shares
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes 5% 50.99 shares
- US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?No 84% 1.48 shares
- Will Discord’s market cap be $30B or greater at market close on IPO day?No 94% 1.89 shares
- Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?Yes 16% 6.41 shares
- Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?Yes 17% 6.41 shares
- US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?No 88% 1.49 shares
- Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?Yes 16% 7.23 shares
- Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?Yes 16% 2.54 shares