Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $19.5
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $280.5
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$37.5
Polymarket Trader
kerlausel
0xb54aa94d9efb180fd0b25e3616ab4a9846c24f02
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $353.46
- Realized PnL
- $104.4
- Win rate
- 50%
- Open positions
- 5
- Closed positions
- 10
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 92.8%
- Current value
- $243.46
- Potential payout
- $262.35
- Potential profit
- $18.89
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $138.46
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $90.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $9.5
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $6.5
Yes position
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$35
No position
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$21
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $66
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET
Ends Mar 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $51.9
Yes position
Ethereum flipped in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $42
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET
Ends Mar 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.4
Yes position
Will Trump say "Iran" during trophy presentation?
Ends Mar 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.4
Yes position
Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.1%
- Multiplier
- 90.91x
- User PnL
- -$10.1
Yes position
Josh O'Connor announced as next James Bond?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$10.6
Yes position
Will Trump or Melania say "Trump" at Chicago Opening Night?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$18.5
Yes position
Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$19.63
Yes position
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Multiplier
- 250.00x
- User PnL
- -$22.47
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Josh O'Connor announced as next James Bond?Yes 0.1% 1,000 shares
- Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond?Yes 0.7% 499.99 shares
- Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond?Yes 0.2% 300 shares
- Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?Yes 2.7% 100 shares
- Will Trump or Melania say "Trump" at Chicago Opening Night?Yes 74% 25 shares
- Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?No 42% 15 shares
- Ethereum flipped in 2026?Yes 58% 100 shares
- Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond?Yes 3.6% 300 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ETUp 73% 39.49 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ETUp 34% 39.5 shares
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?No 67% 46 shares
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes 19% 300 shares