No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $179.91
- Potential profit
- $179.91
- User PnL
- -$137
Polymarket Trader
Insight314
0xb57d496694ea03ec4a1173a074b2f13150795bc1
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $738.5
- Realized PnL
- $119.01
- Win rate
- 75%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 16
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $146.69
- Potential profit
- $146.69
- User PnL
- -$104.6
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 64.5%
- Current value
- $89.88
- Potential payout
- $139.34
- Potential profit
- $49.47
- Multiplier
- 1.55x
- User PnL
- $16.68
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $113.46
- Potential profit
- $113.46
- User PnL
- -$50
No position
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 74%
- Current value
- $79.53
- Potential payout
- $107.47
- Potential profit
- $27.94
- Multiplier
- 1.35x
- User PnL
- $4.53
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $106.96
- Potential profit
- $106.96
- User PnL
- -$27.2
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 59.5%
- Current value
- $54.17
- Potential payout
- $91.04
- Potential profit
- $36.87
- Multiplier
- 1.68x
- User PnL
- $6.17
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $87.69
- Potential payout
- $87.91
- Potential profit
- $0.22
- User PnL
- $7.69
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $84.52
- Potential profit
- $84.52
- User PnL
- -$33.2
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.7%
- Current value
- $78.92
- Potential payout
- $80
- Potential profit
- $1.08
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $35.12
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $65.9
- Potential payout
- $75.32
- Potential profit
- $9.41
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $8.9
Yes position
Will Trump and Putin not meet?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $75.04
- Potential payout
- $75.23
- Potential profit
- $0.19
- User PnL
- $6.91
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $61.81
- Potential profit
- $61.81
- User PnL
- -$55
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 75.5%
- Current value
- $46.5
- Potential payout
- $61.59
- Potential profit
- $15.09
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- $3.35
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $57.14
- Potential profit
- $57.14
- User PnL
- -$40
Yes position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.8%
- Current value
- $37.27
- Potential payout
- $44.5
- Potential profit
- $7.23
- Multiplier
- 1.19x
- User PnL
- $6.27
Yes position
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 58.5%
- Current value
- $25.43
- Potential payout
- $43.48
- Potential profit
- $18.04
- Multiplier
- 1.71x
- User PnL
- $5.43
Yes position
Will Trump and Putin not meet?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 63.5%
- Current value
- $27.37
- Potential payout
- $43.1
- Potential profit
- $15.73
- Multiplier
- 1.57x
- User PnL
- $2.37
No position
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $29.09
- Potential profit
- $29.09
- User PnL
- -$25
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $22.95
- Potential payout
- $22.99
- Potential profit
- $0.03
- User PnL
- $2.95
No position
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $20.61
- Potential payout
- $20.67
- Potential profit
- $0.06
- User PnL
- $0.61
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $16.85
- Potential payout
- $19.48
- Potential profit
- $2.63
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $1.85
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $14.29
- Potential profit
- $14.29
- User PnL
- -$8
No position
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $10.39
- Potential payout
- $10.42
- Potential profit
- $0.03
- User PnL
- $0.39
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.93
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.87
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.12
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.19
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.17
No position
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.03
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.11
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.24
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.01
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.35
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.43
No position
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.25
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 41.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.41x
- User PnL
- -$0.88
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.8
No position
Will Trump and Putin not meet?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 36.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.74x
- User PnL
- -$2
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No 77% 19.48 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 58% 51.72 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?No 67% 14.93 shares
- Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Yes 46% 43.48 shares
- Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?No 54% 8 shares
- Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?No 79% 5 shares
- Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?No 90% 5 shares
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Yes 72% 5 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?No 35% 10 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 84% 59.52 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?No 84% 29.76 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?No 94% 31.91 shares