Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $600
- Potential profit
- $600
- User PnL
- -$6
Polymarket Trader
michealAR1
0xb5a0719e5811aab869133597b830f52e79e5ae08
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $106.15
- Realized PnL
- $4.1
- Win rate
- 33.3%
- Open positions
- 22
- Closed positions
- 3
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $300
- User PnL
- -$3
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $88.48
- Potential profit
- $88.48
- User PnL
- -$9
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $58.33
- Potential profit
- $58.33
- User PnL
- -$2
No position
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 71.5%
- Current value
- $37.24
- Potential payout
- $52.08
- Potential profit
- $14.84
- Multiplier
- 1.40x
- User PnL
- $12.24
N
No position
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 76.5%
- Current value
- $31.87
- Potential payout
- $41.67
- Potential profit
- $9.79
- Multiplier
- 1.31x
- User PnL
- $11.87
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?
Ends Jul 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 22.5%
- Current value
- $8.65
- Potential payout
- $38.46
- Potential profit
- $29.81
- Multiplier
- 4.44x
- User PnL
- -$1.35
No position
GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026?
Ends Jul 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 53%
- Current value
- $19.63
- Potential payout
- $37.04
- Potential profit
- $17.41
- Multiplier
- 1.89x
- User PnL
- -$0.37
Over position
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $29.85
- Potential profit
- $29.85
- User PnL
- -$20
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $23.08
- Potential profit
- $23.08
- User PnL
- -$3
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 38.5%
- Current value
- $8.75
- Potential payout
- $22.73
- Potential profit
- $13.98
- Multiplier
- 2.60x
- User PnL
- -$1.25
No position
Will Russia enter Siversk by November 30?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $21.93
- Potential profit
- $21.93
- User PnL
- -$8.92
Yes position
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20.83
- Potential profit
- $20.83
- User PnL
- -$10
Over position
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland 1st Half O/U 0.5
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20.69
- Potential profit
- $20.69
- User PnL
- -$12
Over position
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20.41
- Potential profit
- $20.41
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?
Ends Jun 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $20
- User PnL
- -$8.9
Yes position
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $20
- User PnL
- -$1
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $15.63
- Potential profit
- $15.63
- User PnL
- -$5
Under 2.5 position
Nikola Bartunkova vs. Diana Shnaider: Total Sets O/U 2.5
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $14.71
- Potential profit
- $14.71
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $13.51
- Potential profit
- $13.51
- User PnL
- -$5
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $11.11
- Potential profit
- $11.11
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.13
- Potential profit
- $2.13
- User PnL
- -$1
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $6.61
Rafael Fiziev position
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Card)
Ends Jun 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026?
Ends Jul 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 8%
- Multiplier
- 12.50x
- User PnL
- -$2.51
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?No 48% 41.67 shares
- UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Card)Rafael Fiziev 56% 26.79 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026?No 54% 37.04 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?No 26% 38.46 shares
- Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?Yes 44.5% 20 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 44% 22.73 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026?Yes 14.2% 52.63 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026?Yes 19% 52.63 shares
- Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5Over 49% 20.41 shares
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to ScoreYes 48% 20.83 shares
- Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to ScoreYes 37% 13.51 shares
- Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over 67% 29.85 shares