Yes position
Ebola case in the US by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.7%
- Current value
- $16.03
- Potential payout
- $344.83
- Potential profit
- $328.79
- Multiplier
- 21.51x
- User PnL
- -$83.97
Polymarket Trader
worrisomemachine
0xb6682dc95069bb83ddf8266a00b7fee732f2bbf5
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $168.35
- Realized PnL
- $99.86
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 6
- Closed positions
- 4
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $13.81
- Potential payout
- $212.5
- Potential profit
- $198.69
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$36.19
Yes position
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?
Ends Oct 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 68%
- Current value
- $68
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $32
- Multiplier
- 1.47x
- User PnL
- -$7
No position
Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?
Ends Oct 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 70.5%
- Current value
- $70.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $29.5
- Multiplier
- 1.42x
- User PnL
- -$7.5
No position
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $29.55
- Potential profit
- $29.55
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
Will any of Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect by Feb 1?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $10
- User PnL
- -$3.8
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $41.43
Yes position
Liberal majority in Canadian Parliament by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $36.19
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.87
Yes position
Will Avi Lewis win the Canadian NDP Leadership election?
Ends Mar 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.37
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Ebola case in the US by June 30?Yes 29% 344.83 shares
- Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?No 78% 100 shares
- Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?Yes 75% 100 shares
- Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?No 67.7% 29.55 shares
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes 60.8% 32.87 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Yes 42% 71.43 shares
- Will Avi Lewis win the Canadian NDP Leadership election?Yes 68% 29.28 shares
- Liberal majority in Canadian Parliament by June 30?Yes 45.3% 66.19 shares
- Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?Yes 23.5% 212.5 shares