Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $134.55
- Potential payout
- $2.07K
- Potential profit
- $1.94K
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$141.76
Polymarket Trader
mad4x
0xb6ce892dd3e01d4e30264f15fd9e61a4f62f895d
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $6.27K
- Realized PnL
- $8.93K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.8%
- Current value
- $218.2
- Potential payout
- $1.86K
- Potential profit
- $1.64K
- Multiplier
- 8.51x
- User PnL
- $39.02
Yes position
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.9%
- Current value
- $1.32K
- Potential payout
- $1.33K
- Potential profit
- $15.31
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $149.29
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $1.01K
- Potential payout
- $1.01K
- Potential profit
- $2.53
- User PnL
- $39.05
No position
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.9%
- Current value
- $856.49
- Potential payout
- $893.58
- Potential profit
- $37.08
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $12.96
Yes position
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?
Ends Jul 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $820.76
- Potential payout
- $887.31
- Potential profit
- $66.55
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $11.42
Yes position
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1.1%
- Current value
- $6.25
- Potential payout
- $594.85
- Potential profit
- $588.61
- Multiplier
- 95.24x
- User PnL
- -$2.6
No position
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.3%
- Current value
- $480.08
- Potential payout
- $544
- Potential profit
- $63.92
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- -$0.27
Yes position
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 2.9%
- Current value
- $13.56
- Potential payout
- $475.67
- Potential profit
- $462.11
- Multiplier
- 35.09x
- User PnL
- -$0.61
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $410.88
- Potential payout
- $475
- Potential profit
- $64.13
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- -$7.08
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.45
- Potential payout
- $451.01
- Potential profit
- $450.56
- Multiplier
- 1000.00x
- User PnL
- -$26.22
Yes position
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.1%
- Current value
- $31.56
- Potential payout
- $442
- Potential profit
- $410.44
- Multiplier
- 14.01x
- User PnL
- -$4.24
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Current value
- $55.65
- Potential payout
- $359
- Potential profit
- $303.36
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- -$101.59
No position
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.16
- Potential payout
- $316
- Potential profit
- $315.84
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$63.66
No position
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- Current value
- $304.47
- Potential payout
- $306
- Potential profit
- $1.53
- User PnL
- $6.12
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 15.8%
- Current value
- $47.68
- Potential payout
- $302.75
- Potential profit
- $255.07
- Multiplier
- 6.35x
- User PnL
- -$3.3
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $278.63
- Potential payout
- $298
- Potential profit
- $19.37
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $15.18
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $0.84
- Potential payout
- $281
- Potential profit
- $280.16
- Multiplier
- 333.33x
- User PnL
- -$3.69
No position
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?
Ends Jul 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $18
- Potential payout
- $240
- Potential profit
- $222
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$8.4
Yes position
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 25%
- Current value
- $59
- Potential payout
- $236
- Potential profit
- $177
- Multiplier
- 4.00x
- User PnL
- -$4.9
Yes position
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 5.6%
- Current value
- $11.54
- Potential payout
- $208
- Potential profit
- $196.46
- Multiplier
- 18.02x
- User PnL
- -$0.57
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $181.17
- Potential payout
- $198
- Potential profit
- $16.83
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $12.22
Yes position
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.4%
- Current value
- $11.87
- Potential payout
- $187
- Potential profit
- $175.13
- Multiplier
- 15.75x
- User PnL
- $1.4
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.3%
- Current value
- $2.33
- Potential payout
- $186
- Potential profit
- $183.68
- Multiplier
- 80.00x
- User PnL
- -$1.4
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.39K
Yes position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 19.6%
- Multiplier
- 5.12x
- User PnL
- $1.75K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $792.43
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $654.31
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $578.33
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $480.02
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $326.88
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $242.11
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $230.11
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $185.13
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $180.44
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $170.45
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $112.03
Yes position
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $104.18
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $88.37
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $83.38
N
No position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $78.72
N
No position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $78.38
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $76.25
No position
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $70.55
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $67.33
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $66.87
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $63.42
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $59.11
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Yes 79.2% 5 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Yes 83% 9 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 94% 751 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Yes 30% 111 shares
- Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to ScoreNo 75% 7 shares
- Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to ScoreNo 74% 8 shares
- Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?Yes 95% 11 shares
- Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?Yes 89% 9 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?No 71.7% 15 shares
- Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?Yes 94% 5 shares
- Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?No 58% 13 shares
- Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?Yes 85% 5 shares