Polymarket Trader

SlowFog

0xb7602567778a1300d22a4134f1899118acb51df2

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $91.79
Realized PnL: $990.24
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 15
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $10.99
Potential payout: $75.77
Potential profit: $64.78
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: -$14.01

No position

Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 73.5%
Current value: $29.4
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $10.6
Multiplier: 1.36x
User PnL: $9.4

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 20%
Current value: $7.69
Potential payout: $38.46
Potential profit: $30.77
Multiplier: 5.00x
User PnL: $2.69

No position

Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 81.5%
Current value: $23.97
Potential payout: $29.41
Potential profit: $5.44
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $8.97

No position

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 61.5%
Current value: $17.41
Potential payout: $28.3
Potential profit: $10.9
Multiplier: 1.63x
User PnL: $2.41

Yes position

Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24?

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $16.67
Potential profit: $16.67
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $16.67
Potential profit: $16.67
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $16.67
Potential profit: $16.67
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 6.3%
Current value: $0.96
Potential payout: $15.38
Potential profit: $14.42
Multiplier: 16.00x
User PnL: -$0.04

Yes position

Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $14.29
Potential profit: $14.29
User PnL: -$1

No position

Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $13.7
Potential profit: $13.7
User PnL: -$1

No position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12.94
Potential profit: $12.94
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12.5
Potential profit: $12.5
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.09
Potential profit: $9.09
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 16.2%
Current value: $1.37
Potential payout: $8.47
Potential profit: $7.1
Multiplier: 6.17x
User PnL: $0.37

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Kanye launch a coin in February?

Ends Feb 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $106.96

No position

US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?

Ends Jan 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $97.91

No position

Cardano ETF in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $96.5

No position

Will Cursor support Grok-3 before April?

Ends Mar 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $89.02

Yes position

Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on January 23?

Ends Jan 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $83.17

No position

Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with India before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $53.46

Yes position

Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?

Ends Mar 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $48.2

Yes position

Elon out of Trump administration before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $46.08

No position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $36.06

No position

DeepSeek V4 released by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.42

No position

Will OpenAI release an open source model before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.02

No position

Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Japan before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.54

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.21

No position

Will Grok have a MacOS desktop app live by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.07

No position

Will Russia enter Sofiivka by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.11

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $21.07

No position

US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.32

No position

DeepSeek R2 released before May?

Ends Apr 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.64

No position

Will Russia capture Rodynske by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.2

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.1

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by February 28, 2025?

Ends Feb 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.11

No position

Will Trump audit Ukraine aid before May?

Ends Apr 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.04

No position

Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.97

No position

Will DOGE audit the IRS before May?

Ends Apr 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.07

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?

No 11.8% 8.47 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31?

No 6.5% 15.38 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

No 13% 23.08 shares
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26?

Yes 8% 12.5 shares
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?

Yes 11% 9.09 shares
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23?

Yes 6% 16.67 shares
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?

Yes 7% 14.29 shares
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24?

Yes 6% 16.67 shares
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25?

Yes 6% 16.67 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

No 13% 15.38 shares
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?

No 7.3% 13.7 shares
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?

No 51% 29.41 shares