Y
Yes position
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 14, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.4%
- Current value
- $18.69
- Potential payout
- $1.34K
- Potential profit
- $1.32K
- Multiplier
- 71.43x
- User PnL
- -$34.09
Polymarket Trader
Asphalt
0xb78b4b8d339e21c6e2ef0e76d5d382103bf0c9ee
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $175.86
- Realized PnL
- -$98.3
- Win rate
- 37.5%
- Open positions
- 3
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $456.07
- Potential profit
- $456.07
- User PnL
- -$13.44
Y
Yes position
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 77.1%
- Current value
- $157.16
- Potential payout
- $203.98
- Potential profit
- $46.81
- Multiplier
- 1.30x
- User PnL
- $12.17
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 27?
Ends Apr 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.83
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in May?
Ends May 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.64
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on April 24?
Ends Apr 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.47
No position
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on April 26?
Ends Apr 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.58
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on April 24?
Ends Apr 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.23
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on April 24?
Ends Apr 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.55
No position
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on April 25?
Ends Apr 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.97
No position
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 12°C on April 24?
Ends Apr 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.56
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 24?
Ends Apr 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.39
Yes position
Will Solana dip to $80 in March?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.7
Yes position
Will Solana hit $210 in March?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.82
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 27?
Ends Apr 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$2.15
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 27?
Ends Apr 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.84
Yes position
Will Ferrari win the 2024 F1 Constructors Championship?
Ends Dec 8, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$3.53
No position
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on April 25?
Ends Apr 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$4.91
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May?
Ends May 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting?
Ends Jun 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$6
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on April 25?
Ends Apr 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$8.83
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 27?
Ends Apr 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$9.57
No position
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 6-12?
Ends May 12, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $115k in May?
Ends May 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$23
No position
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$23.18
No position
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?
Ends Feb 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$30
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026?Yes 71.1% 203.98 shares
- Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 14, 2026?Yes 4.9% 343.25 shares
- Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 14, 2026?Yes 4.2% 117.89 shares
- Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 14, 2026?Yes 3.9% 25.64 shares
- Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 14, 2026?Yes 3.8% 26.29 shares
- Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 14, 2026?Yes 3.8% 26.32 shares
- Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 14, 2026?Yes 3.8% 26.32 shares
- Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 14, 2026?Yes 3.6% 27.49 shares
- Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 14, 2026?Yes 3.6% 27.78 shares
- Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 14, 2026?Yes 3.5% 714.29 shares
- Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?No 0.1% 334.87 shares
- Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?No 7% 334.87 shares