tobias88

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $608.03
Potential profit: $608.03
User PnL: -$133.73

Yes position

Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $316.98
Potential profit: $316.98
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 4, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $299.16
Potential profit: $299.16
User PnL: -$114.28

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $257.76
Potential profit: $257.76
User PnL: -$50

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $192.59
Potential profit: $192.59
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $164.68
Potential profit: $164.68
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Will Luís Marques Mendes win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Ends Jan 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $147
Potential profit: $147
User PnL: -$49.98

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $119.71
Potential profit: $119.71
User PnL: -$26.39

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

US forces in Venezuela again by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $98.03
Potential profit: $98.03
User PnL: -$50

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $93.48
Potential profit: $93.48
User PnL: -$11

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $86
Potential profit: $86
User PnL: -$28

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $59.03
Potential profit: $59.03
User PnL: -$10

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $55.56
Potential profit: $55.56
User PnL: -$5

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $54.49
Potential profit: $54.49
User PnL: -$15

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50.38
Potential profit: $50.38
User PnL: -$12

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$1

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$2

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $49.54
Potential profit: $49.54
User PnL: -$15

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $40.48
Potential profit: $40.48
User PnL: -$2

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $38.77
Potential profit: $38.77
User PnL: -$9

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $38.47
Potential profit: $38.47
User PnL: -$12

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $37.7
Potential profit: $37.7
User PnL: -$4

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $35.47
Potential profit: $35.47
User PnL: -$11

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $449.69

Yes position

Maduro out by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $123.33

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $108

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $95.16

Yes position

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $88.8

Yes position

Will André Ventura win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Ends Jan 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $66.12

No position

Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $65.79

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $58.58

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $58.29

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $52.91

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42.53

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.16

Yes position

US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.58

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $34.57

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.25

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.33

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.93

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.58

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.07

No position

Maduro mugshot released by January 9?

Ends Jan 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.33

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.21

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $9.92

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.93

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET