Polymarket Trader

0xb804acEd9b59FA79bB0b1ecA067A53e1ed803753-1768825121614

0xb804aced9b59fa79bb0b1eca067a53e1ed803753

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $577.15
Realized PnL: $82.04
Win rate: 66.7%
Open positions: 10
Closed positions: 6
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.21K
Potential profit: $1.21K
User PnL: -$29.32

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $392.01
Potential payout: $438
Potential profit: $45.99
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $63.33

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$78

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $180
Potential profit: $180
User PnL: -$94.5

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $170
Potential profit: $170
User PnL: -$74.37

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 49.5%
Current value: $49.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $50.5
Multiplier: 2.02x
User PnL: $3.5

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 94%
Current value: $93.01
Potential payout: $99
Potential profit: $5.99
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $9.52

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.2%
Current value: $42.63
Potential payout: $43
Potential profit: $0.37
User PnL: $4.36

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $39
Potential profit: $39
User PnL: -$23.79

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12PM ET

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $8.62
Potential profit: $8.62
User PnL: -$5

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $76

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.6

No position

Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.97

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.07

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 55.5%
Multiplier: 1.80x
User PnL: -$1.61

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12PM ET

Up 58% 8.62 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Yes 46% 100 shares
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

No 22% 20 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

No 24.2% 80 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?

Yes 61% 39 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

No 73.6% 70 shares
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

No 46% 110 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

No 80% 60 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?

No 99.5% 20 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

No 91% 39 shares
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

No 79% 50 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10?

Up 67% 20 shares