chopwood

Implied probability: 8%
Current value: $3.98
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $46.03
Multiplier: 12.58x
User PnL: -$2.03

No position

Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.25
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $49.75
Multiplier: 200.00x
User PnL: -$17.25

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party win the AL-02 House seat?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 30.5%
Current value: $15.25
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $34.75
Multiplier: 3.28x
User PnL: -$4.75

Yes position

Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?

Ends Nov 7, 2026

Implied probability: 33.5%
Current value: $16.75
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $33.25
Multiplier: 2.99x
User PnL: -$0.25

Yes position

Applied Intuition IPO before 2027?

Implied probability: 11.8%
Current value: $5.9
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $44.1
Multiplier: 8.47x
User PnL: -$3.6

No position

Will Cinde Warmington win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election?

Ends Sep 8, 2026

Implied probability: 3.1%
Current value: $1.53
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $48.48
Multiplier: 32.79x
User PnL: -$4.98

Yes position

Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $5.25
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $44.75
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$14.75

Yes position

Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $2.75
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $47.25
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$8.25

Yes position

Will Donald Trump visit Pakistan in 2026?

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $6.12
Potential payout: $48.96
Potential profit: $42.84
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$2.69

No position

Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?

Implied probability: 2.4%
Current value: $0.91
Potential payout: $38
Potential profit: $37.09
Multiplier: 41.67x
User PnL: -$3.65

No position

Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 29.5%
Current value: $10.32
Potential payout: $34.97
Potential profit: $24.65
Multiplier: 3.39x
User PnL: -$0.87

No position

Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of July 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 20.5%
Current value: $5.03
Potential payout: $24.54
Potential profit: $19.51
Multiplier: 4.88x
User PnL: -$0.37

Yes position

Will Nasim Nuñez lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?

Ends Sep 28, 2026

Implied probability: 26.5%
Current value: $5.3
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $14.7
Multiplier: 3.77x
User PnL: -$5.3

No position

Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $85B by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$7.4

Yes position

Will Kyle Schwarber hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?

Ends Oct 11, 2026

Implied probability: 54.5%
Current value: $10.9
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $9.1
Multiplier: 1.83x
User PnL: -$0.5

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $2.3
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $17.7
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$0.3

No position

Will Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 17, 2027

Implied probability: 18%
Current value: $3.6
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $16.4
Multiplier: 5.56x
User PnL: -$1.6

No position

Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by July 15?

Ends Jul 16, 2026

Implied probability: 2.3%
Current value: $0.45
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $19.55
Multiplier: 44.44x
User PnL: -$3.15

Yes position

Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?

Ends Oct 5, 2026

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $3.7
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $16.3
Multiplier: 5.41x
User PnL: -$0.7

Yes position

Will François Bayrou be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 17, 2027

Implied probability: 5.6%
Current value: $1.12
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $18.88
Multiplier: 17.86x
User PnL: -$2.24

Yes position

Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 31.5%
Current value: $6.3
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $13.7
Multiplier: 3.17x
User PnL: -$2.5

No position

Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$2.6

Yes position

Will OpenAI announce a watch in 2026?

Implied probability: 17.5%
Current value: $3.5
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $16.5
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: -$3.7

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2027

Implied probability: 21%
Multiplier: 4.76x
User PnL: $4.4

Yes position

Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by June 30?

Implied probability: 6.2%
Multiplier: 16.26x
User PnL: $3.41

No position

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3

Yes position

Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $10B by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 91.5%
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $2.8

Yes position

Will Tidö parties win a majority in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections?

Ends Sep 14, 2026

Implied probability: 16%
Multiplier: 6.25x
User PnL: $2.7

No position

Tuyo FDV above $50M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 69%
Multiplier: 1.45x
User PnL: $2.11

Yes position

Tuyo FDV above $20M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 34.5%
Multiplier: 2.90x
User PnL: $2.09

No position

Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: $1.99

Yes position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.84

No position

Ethereal FDV above $25M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 20.5%
Multiplier: 4.88x
User PnL: $1.7

No position

GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 96.9%
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $1.55

No position

Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.5

Yes position

Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.5

No position

Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of July 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 15%
Multiplier: 6.67x
User PnL: $1.44

Yes position

Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June?

Implied probability: 1.1%
Multiplier: 95.24x
User PnL: $1.4

Yes position

Tread FDV above $80M one day after launch

Implied probability: 27%
Multiplier: 3.70x
User PnL: $1.2

No position

Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in June 2026?

Implied probability: 98.4%
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $1.07

No position

Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: $1

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: $1

No position

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 21.5%
Multiplier: 4.65x
User PnL: $1

No position

US x China tariff agreement by December 31?

Implied probability: 15%
Multiplier: 6.67x
User PnL: $1

Down position

SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 77%
Multiplier: 1.30x
User PnL: $1

Yes position

Will Elmano de Freitas win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 27.5%
Multiplier: 3.64x
User PnL: $0.8

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?