Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Current value
- $20.36
- Potential payout
- $370.17
- Potential profit
- $349.81
- Multiplier
- 18.18x
- User PnL
- -$1.86
Polymarket Trader
Slothtrop
0xb8a47d387beb9ec7fd4baaec05396e9677cea13b
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.45K
- Realized PnL
- $533.07
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 4.6%
- Current value
- $7.14
- Potential payout
- $156.84
- Potential profit
- $149.71
- Multiplier
- 21.98x
- User PnL
- -$1.45
No position
Trump out as President by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $154.63
- Potential payout
- $155.17
- Potential profit
- $0.54
- User PnL
- $0.46
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $154.23
- Potential payout
- $154.61
- Potential profit
- $0.39
- User PnL
- $0.6
Yes position
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1.2%
- Current value
- $1.77
- Potential payout
- $154.19
- Potential profit
- $152.42
- Multiplier
- 86.96x
- User PnL
- -$0.56
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $142.87
- Potential payout
- $142.94
- Potential profit
- $0.07
- User PnL
- $0.3
Yes position
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 99%
- Current value
- $126.3
- Potential payout
- $127.64
- Potential profit
- $1.34
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $3.47
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $110.68
- Potential payout
- $117.13
- Potential profit
- $6.44
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $7.34
No position
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $114.93
- Potential profit
- $114.93
- User PnL
- -$0.11
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $95.99
- Potential payout
- $106.07
- Potential profit
- $10.08
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $2.56
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $91.73
- Potential payout
- $106.05
- Potential profit
- $14.32
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $0.18
No position
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $89.16
- Potential payout
- $89.92
- Potential profit
- $0.76
- User PnL
- $2.17
Yes position
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 5%
- Current value
- $3.93
- Potential payout
- $79.48
- Potential profit
- $75.54
- Multiplier
- 20.20x
- User PnL
- $0.03
Yes position
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $78.59
- Potential payout
- $79.26
- Potential profit
- $0.67
- User PnL
- -$0.04
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $71.45
- Potential payout
- $71.77
- Potential profit
- $0.32
- User PnL
- $0.23
No position
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $70.55
- Potential payout
- $71.15
- Potential profit
- $0.6
- User PnL
- -$0.11
No position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.1%
- Current value
- $67.98
- Potential payout
- $68.6
- Potential profit
- $0.62
- User PnL
- -$0.07
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Current value
- $10.31
- Potential payout
- $66.76
- Potential profit
- $56.45
- Multiplier
- 6.47x
- User PnL
- $0.22
Yes position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.9%
- Current value
- $1.19
- Potential payout
- $64.31
- Potential profit
- $63.12
- Multiplier
- 54.05x
- User PnL
- -$0.29
Yes position
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 60.5%
- Current value
- $38.23
- Potential payout
- $63.19
- Potential profit
- $24.96
- Multiplier
- 1.65x
- User PnL
- $1.86
No position
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $59.37
- Potential payout
- $59.58
- Potential profit
- $0.21
- User PnL
- $0.03
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.8%
- Current value
- $51.5
- Potential payout
- $54.94
- Potential profit
- $3.43
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $0.03
Yes position
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1.7%
- Current value
- $0.87
- Potential payout
- $52.59
- Potential profit
- $51.73
- Multiplier
- 60.61x
- User PnL
- -$0.11
Yes position
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $4.34
- Potential payout
- $51.05
- Potential profit
- $46.71
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$0.48
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $320.31
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $65.13
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.4
Yes position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.12
No position
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.05
No position
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.5
Yes position
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.44
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.38
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.61
No position
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 65.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.53x
- User PnL
- $5.08
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.03
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.12
Yes position
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.96
No position
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.71
No position
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.68
Yes position
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.54
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.46
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.44
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.33
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.32
No position
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.95
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.8
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.47
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.25
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?No 54% 7.35 shares
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?No 99.7% 7.36 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?No 11.8% 10.3 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 31% 7.5 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Yes 56% 10 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 44% 10 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 61% 7.95 shares
- Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No 99.4% 7.6 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 85% 5.43 shares
- Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes 24.4% 6.47 shares
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?No 26% 5.01 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 52% 5.13 shares