Rr55

Implied probability: 99.6%
Current value: $5.38K
Potential payout: $5.4K
Potential profit: $24.3
User PnL: $138.01

Yes position

Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?

Implied probability: 51.5%
Current value: $1.87K
Potential payout: $3.63K
Potential profit: $1.76K
Multiplier: 1.94x
User PnL: $281.15

Yes position

Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?

Implied probability: 7.8%
Current value: $270.78
Potential payout: $3.47K
Potential profit: $3.2K
Multiplier: 12.82x
User PnL: -$47.1

Yes position

Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?

Implied probability: 29.5%
Current value: $968.01
Potential payout: $3.28K
Potential profit: $2.31K
Multiplier: 3.39x
User PnL: -$0.49

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $3.18K
Potential payout: $3.2K
Potential profit: $20.8
User PnL: $114.76

Yes position

Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $7.93
Potential payout: $3.17K
Potential profit: $3.16K
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$30.22

Yes position

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 25.1%
Current value: $728.95
Potential payout: $2.91K
Potential profit: $2.18K
Multiplier: 3.99x
User PnL: -$230.55

No position

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $2.57K
Potential payout: $2.72K
Potential profit: $149.5
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $356.42

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $2.65K
Potential payout: $2.66K
Potential profit: $6.64
User PnL: $7.02

Yes position

Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest?

Ends Dec 7, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.31K
Potential profit: $2.31K
User PnL: -$762.22

No position

Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 97.8%
Current value: $2.25K
Potential payout: $2.3K
Potential profit: $51.75
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: -$2.35

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 96.7%
Current value: $2.14K
Potential payout: $2.21K
Potential profit: $74.03
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $8.74

Yes position

Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.2K
Potential profit: $2.2K
User PnL: -$18.77

Yes position

Will global temperature increase by less than 1.00ºC in September 2025?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.11K
Potential profit: $2.11K
User PnL: -$54.53

Yes position

Will CDP win the most seats in the House of Councillors following the 2025 Japan election?

Ends Jul 27, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.1K
Potential profit: $2.1K
User PnL: -$182.37

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $1.69K
Potential payout: $2.1K
Potential profit: $409.5
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: -$38.5

Yes position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.06K
Potential profit: $2.06K
User PnL: -$177.19

No position

Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Implied probability: 82%
Current value: $1.55K
Potential payout: $1.89K
Potential profit: $339.58
Multiplier: 1.22x
User PnL: $299.6

Yes position

Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.88K
Potential profit: $1.88K
User PnL: -$261.9

No position

Iran closes its airspace by June 8?

Ends Jun 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.56K
Potential profit: $1.56K
User PnL: -$1.14K

Yes position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 1.7%
Current value: $25.5
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $1.47K
Multiplier: 58.82x
User PnL: -$203.5

Yes position

Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?

Ends Aug 17, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $1.5K
User PnL: -$580

No position

Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 98.6%
Current value: $1.48K
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $21
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $40.5

Yes position

Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $1.5K
User PnL: -$60.25

Yes position

Will the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?

Ends Jun 6, 2027

Implied probability: 81.6%
Current value: $1K
Potential payout: $1.23K
Potential profit: $226.02
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: -$80.39

Yes position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?

Implied probability: 32.3%
Current value: $365.55
Potential payout: $1.13K
Potential profit: $767.94
Multiplier: 3.10x
User PnL: -$1.91

No position

Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Implied probability: 70%
Current value: $775.63
Potential payout: $1.11K
Potential profit: $332.41
Multiplier: 1.43x
User PnL: $293.43

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $1.01K
Potential payout: $1.1K
Potential profit: $93.88
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $159.39

No position

Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 98.9%
Current value: $1.07K
Potential payout: $1.08K
Potential profit: $11.86
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $36.29

No position

Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Implied probability: 95%
Current value: $997.69
Potential payout: $1.05K
Potential profit: $53.06
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $210.72

Yes position

Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 3.2%
Current value: $32.41
Potential payout: $1.03K
Potential profit: $996.53
Multiplier: 31.75x
User PnL: -$94.78

Yes position

Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $903.95
Potential payout: $1.01K
Potential profit: $106.05
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $95.95

No position

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $915
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $85
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $5

Yes position

Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 4.3%
Current value: $43.4
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $956.6
Multiplier: 23.04x
User PnL: $3.4

Yes position

Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 5%
Current value: $49.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $950.5
Multiplier: 20.20x
User PnL: $9.5

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $20.5
Potential payout: $999.97
Potential profit: $979.47
Multiplier: 48.78x
User PnL: -$12.28

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 96.6%
Current value: $946.68
Potential payout: $980
Potential profit: $33.32
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $29.4

Yes position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 86%
Current value: $774
Potential payout: $900
Potential profit: $126
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $168

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 96.9%
Current value: $872.09
Potential payout: $899.99
Potential profit: $27.9
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $68.1

Yes position

Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?

Ends Oct 19, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $800
Potential profit: $800
User PnL: -$355

Yes position

Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $748
Potential payout: $800
Potential profit: $52
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $159

Yes position

Will Russia capture Yunakivka before August?

Ends Aug 1, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $798.99
Potential profit: $798.99
User PnL: -$537.09

Yes position

Will the National Action Party (PAN) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?

Ends Jun 6, 2027

Implied probability: 1.8%
Current value: $13.88
Potential payout: $793
Potential profit: $779.12
Multiplier: 57.14x
User PnL: $5.05

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?

Implied probability: 86.7%
Current value: $606.54
Potential payout: $699.99
Potential profit: $93.45
Multiplier: 1.15x
User PnL: $58.65

No position

Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $581.3
Potential payout: $679.89
Potential profit: $98.58
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: -$0.74

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 77.5%
Current value: $488.25
Potential payout: $630
Potential profit: $141.75
Multiplier: 1.29x
User PnL: -$9.45

Yes position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $569.27
Potential payout: $622.15
Potential profit: $52.88
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $32.41

Yes position

Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 88.6%
Current value: $531.3
Potential payout: $600
Potential profit: $68.7
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $78.1

Yes position

Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 70.5%
Current value: $423
Potential payout: $600
Potential profit: $177
Multiplier: 1.42x
User PnL: -$4

Yes position

Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 44.5%
Current value: $241.41
Potential payout: $542.5
Potential profit: $301.09
Multiplier: 2.25x
User PnL: -$41.26

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.68K

Yes position

Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.67K

Yes position

Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%?

Ends May 18, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.28K

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.94K

Yes position

Will global temperature increase by between 1.22-1.26ºC in April 2025?

Ends Apr 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.22K

No position

Israel military action against Iraq by Friday?

Ends Jun 13, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.79K

Yes position

Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Ends Jan 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.78K

Yes position

Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in December 2025?

Ends Jan 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.41K

Yes position

Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.29K

Yes position

Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.18K

No position

Trump cabinet member out before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.15K

Yes position

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9 Superheavy explode?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.14K

No position

Will Mike Waltz leave the Trump administration in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.13K

Yes position

Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?

Ends Dec 7, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.1K

Yes position

Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in February 2026?

Ends Mar 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $918.03

Yes position

Will António José Seguro win the second round by 30–40%?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $911.19

Yes position

Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in March 2026?

Ends Apr 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $774.92

No position

Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9 Superheavy?

Ends Apr 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $753.23

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $738.55

Yes position

Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $729.8

No position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $717.89

Yes position

Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $714.98

Yes position

Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $706.76

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $630.45

Yes position

Will Russia recapture Sudzha by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $621.16

Yes position

Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $601.4

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2PM ET

Ends Jun 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $594.7

Yes position

Will global temperature increase by between 1.32-1.36ºC in March 2025?

Ends Mar 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $589.46

Yes position

Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 Superheavy?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $574.78

Yes position

US government shutdown Saturday?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $573.94

No position

Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $555.99

Yes position

Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in January 2026?

Ends Feb 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $544.26

No position

US forces enter Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $541.93

Yes position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $540.76

No position

Maduro out in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $514.09

No position

Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $512.27

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $501.56

Yes position

Will Union win the most seats in the next German election?

Ends Feb 23, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $494.31

No position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $489.95

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $483.22

No position

US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?

Ends Jan 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $479.01

Yes position

Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by February 28?