Polymarket Trader

roger1979

0xb8cb753a11bb2e4331148de320c588b467df1b4b

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $46.21
Realized PnL: $73.74
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $694.4
Potential profit: $694.4
User PnL: -$9.27

Yes position

Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 2.8%
Current value: $0.61
Potential payout: $21.92
Potential profit: $21.31
Multiplier: 35.71x
User PnL: -$2.02

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $0.45
Potential payout: $20.94
Potential profit: $20.49
Multiplier: 46.73x
User PnL: -$1.79

No position

Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-03-07?

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12.05
Potential profit: $12.05
User PnL: -$5.05

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 18.1%
Current value: $2.06
Potential payout: $11.42
Potential profit: $9.36
Multiplier: 5.54x
User PnL: -$0.52

Yes position

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $1.61
Potential payout: $9.75
Potential profit: $8.14
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: -$0.34

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 17.9%
Current value: $1.73
Potential payout: $9.67
Potential profit: $7.94
Multiplier: 5.60x
User PnL: $0.15

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 21.6%
Current value: $2.03
Potential payout: $9.44
Potential profit: $7.41
Multiplier: 4.64x
User PnL: $0.19

No position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $8.02
Potential payout: $8.02
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $0.02

Yes position

Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 15.9%
Current value: $1.19
Potential payout: $7.47
Potential profit: $6.28
Multiplier: 6.29x
User PnL: -$0.08

No position

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 17.5%
Current value: $1.3
Potential payout: $7.4
Potential profit: $6.11
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: -$0.19

Yes position

Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 18.3%
Current value: $1.31
Potential payout: $7.18
Potential profit: $5.87
Multiplier: 5.48x
User PnL: -$0.43

No position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $1.03
Potential payout: $6.64
Potential profit: $5.61
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: $0.03

Yes position

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 56%
Current value: $3.66
Potential payout: $6.54
Potential profit: $2.88
Multiplier: 1.79x
User PnL: -$0.07

No position

GPT-5.6 released by July 24, 2026?

Ends Jul 24, 2026

Implied probability: 13%
Current value: $0.83
Potential payout: $6.41
Potential profit: $5.58
Multiplier: 7.69x
User PnL: -$0.13

Yes position

Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 28.5%
Current value: $1.77
Potential payout: $6.2
Potential profit: $4.43
Multiplier: 3.51x
User PnL: -$0.03

Yes position

Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 51.5%
Current value: $3.17
Potential payout: $6.16
Potential profit: $2.99
Multiplier: 1.94x
User PnL: $1.82

No position

Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?

Ends Aug 4, 2026

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $1.1
Potential payout: $5.94
Potential profit: $4.84
Multiplier: 5.41x
User PnL: $0.09

Yes position

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 58.5%
Current value: $3.42
Potential payout: $5.85
Potential profit: $2.43
Multiplier: 1.71x
User PnL: -$0.38

No position

Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.76
Potential profit: $5.75
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2.24

Yes position

Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 25.5%
Current value: $1.47
Potential payout: $5.75
Potential profit: $4.28
Multiplier: 3.92x
User PnL: -$0.03

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Ends Sep 16, 2026

Implied probability: 31.5%
Current value: $1.78
Potential payout: $5.66
Potential profit: $3.88
Multiplier: 3.17x
User PnL: $0.2

No position

Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $5.5
Potential payout: $5.52
Potential profit: $0.02
User PnL: $4.23

Team Liquid position

Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5)

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 41.5%
Current value: $2.17
Potential payout: $5.22
Potential profit: $3.05
Multiplier: 2.41x
User PnL: -$0.03

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 2.7%
Multiplier: 37.74x
User PnL: $15.36

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.58

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 25?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.16

No position

Croatia leading at halftime?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.29

Aliaksandra Sasnovich position

Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Katy Dunne

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.24

Toby Samuel position

Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Ends Jul 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.66

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 8?

Ends Mar 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.63

No position

Will Trump visit China by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.51

Down position

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24?

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.35

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.93

No position

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.85

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 7?

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.7

No position

Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.07

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.52

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.39

India position

T20 World Cup: India vs New Zealand

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.17

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down on March 7?

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.1

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.09

No position

Netanyahu out by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.8%
User PnL: $0.92

No position

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?

Ends Mar 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.65

No position

Will Athletic Club win on 2026-03-08?

Ends Mar 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.56

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down on March 14?

Ends Mar 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.38

No position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.35

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94.6%
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0.28

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

GPT-5.6 released by July 24, 2026?

No 15% 6.41 shares
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 16.3% 9.67 shares
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Yes 17% 7.47 shares
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?

No 15% 6.64 shares
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?

Yes 23% 5.04 shares
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?

Yes 26% 5.75 shares
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Yes 28% 5.66 shares
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?

No 17% 5.94 shares
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5)

Team Liquid 42% 5.22 shares
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June?

Yes 10.7% 20.94 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?

Yes 23% 5.16 shares
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?

Yes 30% 5 shares