No position
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.2%
- Current value
- $24.54K
- Potential payout
- $25K
- Potential profit
- $462.5
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $12.04K
Polymarket Trader
CaptainCoinflip
0xb8fe807aa951e35af53fd0fee36abc303864ce76
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $49.72K
- Realized PnL
- $108.45K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 17
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.9%
- Current value
- $462.5
- Potential payout
- $25K
- Potential profit
- $24.54K
- Multiplier
- 54.05x
- User PnL
- -$12.04K
No position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.6%
- Current value
- $14.63K
- Potential payout
- $15K
- Potential profit
- $367.5
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $480.64
Yes position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $12.5K
- Potential profit
- $12.5K
- User PnL
- -$25
No position
Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.6%
- Current value
- $2.69K
- Potential payout
- $2.76K
- Potential profit
- $67.57
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- -$2.14
No position
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $2.54K
- Potential payout
- $2.55K
- Potential profit
- $11.47
- User PnL
- $16.16
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $6.25
- Potential payout
- $2.5K
- Potential profit
- $2.49K
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$118.75
Yes position
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 9%
- Current value
- $154.22
- Potential payout
- $1.71K
- Potential profit
- $1.56K
- Multiplier
- 11.11x
- User PnL
- -$282.28
No position
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.5%
- Current value
- $1.68K
- Potential payout
- $1.71K
- Potential profit
- $26.47
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $10.24
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $110.34
- Potential payout
- $1.7K
- Potential profit
- $1.59K
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$14.66
No position
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.9%
- Current value
- $1.59K
- Potential payout
- $1.64K
- Potential profit
- $50.77
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- -$11.9
No position
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.7%
- Current value
- $1.22K
- Potential payout
- $1.26K
- Potential profit
- $41.74
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- -$19.35
Yes position
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Current value
- $7.33
- Potential payout
- $862.07
- Potential profit
- $854.74
- Multiplier
- 117.65x
- User PnL
- -$42.67
Yes position
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.1%
- Current value
- $29.21
- Potential payout
- $721.16
- Potential profit
- $691.95
- Multiplier
- 24.69x
- User PnL
- -$64.54
Yes position
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.8%
- Current value
- $25.31
- Potential payout
- $666.08
- Potential profit
- $640.77
- Multiplier
- 26.32x
- User PnL
- -$12.19
Yes position
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 11%
- Current value
- $36.13
- Potential payout
- $328.45
- Potential profit
- $292.32
- Multiplier
- 9.09x
- User PnL
- -$13.87
Yes position
Sudan civil war ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.5%
- Current value
- $1.24
- Potential payout
- $50.56
- Potential profit
- $49.32
- Multiplier
- 40.82x
- User PnL
- -$8.98
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.59K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.82K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.79K
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.78K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.59K
No position
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8?
Ends Nov 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $6.52K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.78K
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4.77K
Yes position
Another Israel strike on Yemen in July?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.94K
Yes position
Israel strike on Iran on June 24?
Ends Jun 25, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.88K
Yes position
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.56K
No position
Israel strike on Yemen by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.92K
Yes position
Will Israel strike 2 countries in November 2025?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.81K
Yes position
Israel strike on the West Bank by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.78K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.71K
Yes position
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 25, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.43K
Yes position
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?
Ends Jan 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.05K
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.96K
No position
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 19?
Ends Nov 19, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.58K
No position
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 28, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.53K
No position
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 19, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.52K
No position
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 16?
Ends Nov 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.44K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.36K
Yes position
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 5, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.36K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?No 98.8% 261 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by June 30?Yes 7.4% 1,697.56 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Yes 10.6% 781.28 shares
- Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027?Yes 99.9% 246 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Yes 16% 305 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Yes 17% 1,010.99 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Yes 18% 300.99 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Yes 19% 200 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Yes 26% 321.64 shares
- Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027?Yes 98.5% 71 shares
- Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027?Yes 98.3% 15 shares
- Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027?Yes 97.8% 55 shares