No position
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $1.54K
- Potential payout
- $1.7K
- Potential profit
- $161.93
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $42.61
Polymarket Trader
aleksandrshtefanov
0xb91af4ff55bf8392d329c97e29d9b87733b029dd
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $3.81K
- Realized PnL
- $868.78
- Win rate
- 66.7%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$320
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $667.86
- Potential payout
- $714.29
- Potential profit
- $46.43
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $67.86
Yes position
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 40.6%
- Current value
- $257.26
- Potential payout
- $634.42
- Potential profit
- $377.16
- Multiplier
- 2.47x
- User PnL
- $7.26
No position
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $563.64
- Potential payout
- $616
- Potential profit
- $52.36
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $163.64
Yes position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $553.38
- Potential profit
- $553.38
- User PnL
- -$130
N
No position
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $500
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.1%
- Current value
- $5.09
- Potential payout
- $484.55
- Potential profit
- $479.46
- Multiplier
- 95.24x
- User PnL
- -$14.91
Yes position
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Current value
- $39.19
- Potential payout
- $270.27
- Potential profit
- $231.08
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- -$60.81
No position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 79.9%
- Current value
- $195.35
- Potential payout
- $244.5
- Potential profit
- $49.14
- Multiplier
- 1.25x
- User PnL
- -$4.65
Hokori position
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winner
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $238.1
- Potential profit
- $238.1
- User PnL
- -$50
No position
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $207.69
- Potential payout
- $219.78
- Potential profit
- $12.09
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $7.69
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $205
- Potential profit
- $205
- User PnL
- -$30
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $175.44
- Potential profit
- $175.44
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $163.74
- Potential profit
- $163.74
- User PnL
- -$50
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $128.26
- Potential payout
- $144.93
- Potential profit
- $16.67
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $28.26
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $130.43
- Potential profit
- $130.43
- User PnL
- -$30
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $122.12
- Potential profit
- $122.12
- User PnL
- -$40
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.7%
- Current value
- $110.42
- Potential payout
- $114.19
- Potential profit
- $3.77
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $10.42
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 12.1%
- Current value
- $13.39
- Potential payout
- $111.11
- Potential profit
- $97.72
- Multiplier
- 8.30x
- User PnL
- -$6.61
Yes position
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $7.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $92.5
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$2.5
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.9%
- Current value
- $69.59
- Potential payout
- $72.6
- Potential profit
- $3.01
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $10.49
Yes position
Trump out as President before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $3.82
- Potential payout
- $58.82
- Potential profit
- $55
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$6.18
Yes position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $55.56
- Potential profit
- $55.56
- User PnL
- -$20
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $193.24
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $172.15
Y
Yes position
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $112.39
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $108.19
Yes position
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $97.93
Yes position
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $80.91
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 14?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $69.02
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $60
Yes position
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $50.91
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $46.91
No position
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.84
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.22
Yes position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.1%
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $10.39
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $9.1
No position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.29
Yes position
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1.3%
- Multiplier
- 80.00x
- User PnL
- $0.28
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
Cloud Dawning position
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Dawning (BO3) - BLAST Slam China Closed Qualifier Playoffs
Ends Apr 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Military action against Iran ends on March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$25
Yes position
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$30
Yes position
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$50
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 WinnerHokori 21% 238.1 shares
- US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026?Yes 86.2% 812.39 shares
- US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026?No 20% 500 shares
- Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election?Yes 93.8% 2,880.43 shares
- Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by December 31?No 64.9% 616 shares
- Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?No 88.8% 337.84 shares
- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No 81.8% 244.5 shares
- Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election?Yes 92% 2,173.91 shares
- Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election?Yes 92% 706.52 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Yes 5% 200 shares
- Iran leadership change by December 31?Yes 37% 270.27 shares
- Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?Yes 7.7% 258.65 shares