No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $12.17
- Potential payout
- $13.3
- Potential profit
- $1.13
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $3.26
Polymarket Trader
0xb977...ca0c
0xb97710d643303b23ab0e08ebe6b397287f11ca0c
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $48.4
- Realized PnL
- -$36.16
- Win rate
- 33.3%
- Open positions
- 8
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $10.16
- Potential payout
- $10.87
- Potential profit
- $0.71
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $1.25
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $10.16
- Potential payout
- $10.87
- Potential profit
- $0.71
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $1.25
No position
Trump out as President before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $9.81
- Potential payout
- $10.61
- Potential profit
- $0.8
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $0.9
Yes position
US strike on Colombia by December 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 18.5%
- Current value
- $1.87
- Potential payout
- $10.11
- Potential profit
- $8.24
- Multiplier
- 5.41x
- User PnL
- -$0.35
Yes position
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 38%
- Current value
- $2.85
- Potential payout
- $7.5
- Potential profit
- $4.65
- Multiplier
- 2.63x
- User PnL
- $0.75
No position
GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?
Ends Jul 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.3%
- Current value
- $0.15
- Potential payout
- $6.5
- Potential profit
- $6.35
- Multiplier
- 44.44x
- User PnL
- -$1.54
No position
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 42.5%
- Current value
- $1.22
- Potential payout
- $2.87
- Potential profit
- $1.65
- Multiplier
- 2.35x
- User PnL
- -$0.1
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.82
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.84
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?
Ends Jul 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.69
Yes position
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.47
Yes position
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?
Ends Feb 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.97
Yes position
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.51
No position
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 15%+?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.78
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.54
No position
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.47
No position
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election?
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.64
Yes position
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.97
No position
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.98
Yes position
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.16
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.22
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.97
No position
Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?
Ends Mar 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.97
Yes position
Will Amanda De Ryk win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral election?
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$3.1
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$3.93
No position
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$4.71
No position
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?
Ends Feb 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$8.91
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$8.91
Yes position
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?
Ends Feb 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$8.91
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$8.91
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?No 26% 6.5 shares
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?Yes 33% 7 shares
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No 46% 2.87 shares
- Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Yes 28% 7.5 shares
- Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 15%+?No 79% 8.46 shares
- Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election?No 25% 6.56 shares
- Will Amanda De Ryk win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral election?Yes 31% 10 shares
- Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?Yes 25% 7.89 shares
- Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Yes 4.8% 45 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?Yes 34% 11.15 shares
- Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No 35% 13.46 shares
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?Yes 40.6% 2.59 shares