0xB986084A183A218B59E97B2ddF1d3E2da9e04B60-1772464454915

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $10.04
Potential payout: $1.26K
Potential profit: $1.25K
Multiplier: 125.00x
User PnL: -$71.17

Yes position

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $61
Potential payout: $581
Potential profit: $520
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$42.76

Yes position

Will Nasir Hosseini be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $1.25
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $498.75
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: $0.25

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the highest private market valuation on June 30?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.6
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $399.4
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$9.4

Yes position

Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Ends Oct 10, 2026

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $22.75
Potential payout: $350
Potential profit: $327.25
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$5.25

No position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $21
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $179
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$29

No position

Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $190.56
Potential payout: $191.23
Potential profit: $0.67
User PnL: $107.76

Yes position

Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $2
Potential payout: $166.39
Potential profit: $164.39
Multiplier: 83.33x
User PnL: -$38

Yes position

U.S. issues passport with Trump's face on it by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 89%
Current value: $129.36
Potential payout: $145.35
Potential profit: $15.99
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $21.93

No position

Trump's face on US gold coin by July 4?

Ends Jul 4, 2026

Implied probability: 96.4%
Current value: $86.15
Potential payout: $89.42
Potential profit: $3.26
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $10.35

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $0.98
Potential payout: $89.29
Potential profit: $88.3
Multiplier: 90.91x
User PnL: -$24.02

Yes position

Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 10%
Current value: $7.17
Potential payout: $71.68
Potential profit: $64.51
Multiplier: 10.00x
User PnL: -$2.83

Yes position

Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 89.8%
Current value: $64.24
Potential payout: $71.58
Potential profit: $7.34
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: $19.24

No position

Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $59.97
Potential payout: $60
Potential profit: $0.03
User PnL: $9.86

Yes position

Will United States win on 2026-06-25?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $57.5
Potential profit: $57.5
User PnL: -$29.33

No position

Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 92%
Current value: $50.86
Potential payout: $55.31
Potential profit: $4.45
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $0.86

Yes position

Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?

Implied probability: 13%
Current value: $7.13
Potential payout: $54.83
Potential profit: $47.7
Multiplier: 7.69x
User PnL: -$6.58

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $49.88
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $0.13
User PnL: $11.88

Yes position

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?

Implied probability: 9%
Current value: $3.87
Potential payout: $42.99
Potential profit: $39.12
Multiplier: 11.11x
User PnL: -$25.59

No position

Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?

Implied probability: 98%
Current value: $39.19
Potential payout: $39.99
Potential profit: $0.8
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $5.92

No position

Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $0.76
Potential payout: $30.83
Potential profit: $30.07
Multiplier: 40.82x
User PnL: -$24.24

Yes position

Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Implied probability: 1.7%
Current value: $0.5
Potential payout: $30.3
Potential profit: $29.8
Multiplier: 60.61x
User PnL: -$0.5

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $30
User PnL: -$18.66

No position

Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $25.65
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $4.35
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $3.05

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $968.98

No position

Will another country strike Iran by March 7?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $570.74

No position

Will another country strike Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $451.47

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $295.8

Yes position

US strikes Iraq by March 7?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $225.89

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $164.33

Yes position

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $146.41

Yes position

Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $99.81

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 4PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $99.52

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $90.12

Yes position

Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 4 and 7 on April 12, 2026?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $87.78

Yes position

Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 4?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $85.9

Yes position

Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 4.5

Ends May 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $80.29

Yes position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $77.43

No position

Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $71.55

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $69.71

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $69.46

No position

US announces military support of Iran opposition by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $69.24

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $58.61

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 8AM ET

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $57.13

No position

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 4?

Ends Jun 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50.75

Yes position

Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $47

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET