Polymarket Trader

MatthewRivers1809

0xb99368e321b123906203246eff8e4b5a74a66e3a

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $2.09K
Realized PnL: $2.21K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 17
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on March 23?

Ends Mar 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.12K
Potential profit: $1.12K
User PnL: -$760.24

No position

Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in April 2026?

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $886
Potential payout: $886
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $203.78

Yes position

Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 23%
Current value: $176.41
Potential payout: $767
Potential profit: $590.59
Multiplier: 4.35x
User PnL: -$145.73

Yes position

Will "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (March 29)

Ends Mar 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $652
Potential profit: $652
User PnL: -$163

Yes position

Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and 60%?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $586
Potential profit: $586
User PnL: -$382.66

Yes position

Will USDT market cap hit $200B before 2027?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 58%
Current value: $312.04
Potential payout: $538
Potential profit: $225.96
Multiplier: 1.72x
User PnL: -$103.3

Yes position

Will Iran strike Habshan Field or any Processing Plants of the Habshan Complex by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $516
Potential profit: $516
User PnL: -$134.16

No position

Mistral AI IPO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $343.68
Potential payout: $384
Potential profit: $40.32
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $5.76

No position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 30, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $311
Potential profit: $311
User PnL: -$130.62

Yes position

Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $278
Potential profit: $278
User PnL: -$116.76

Yes position

Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?

Ends May 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $225
Potential profit: $225
User PnL: -$45

Down position

XRP Up or Down - February 18, 10AM ET

Ends Feb 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $177
Potential profit: $177
User PnL: -$90.27

No position

Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 98.1%
Current value: $162.85
Potential payout: $166
Potential profit: $3.15
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $49.97

No position

Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and 60%?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $151
Potential payout: $151
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $75.95

No position

Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 48%
Current value: $57.6
Potential payout: $120
Potential profit: $62.4
Multiplier: 2.08x
User PnL: -$21.6

Yes position

Will Forsen beat xQc's Minecraft speedrun record by April 30?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $106
Potential profit: $106
User PnL: -$20.14

Yes position

Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $1
Potential payout: $1
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $0.15

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Parivision qualify to Blast Open Rotterdam Playoffs?

Ends Mar 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $806.15

Yes position

Will the announcers say "Triangle" during Holloway vs. Oliveira 2?

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $226.2

Yes position

Will Trump say "Medal of Honor" this week? (March 22)

Ends Mar 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $218.28

Yes position

Will the Individual taxation referendum be approved in Switzerland’s 8 March 2026 popular vote?

Ends Mar 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $210.45

No position

Will Melania say "Peace" during Fostering the Future Together event on March 24?

Ends Mar 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $133.2

Eureka Red Devils position

Eureka Red Devils vs. Indiana State Sycamores (W)

Ends Nov 29, 2025

Implied probability: 50%
Multiplier: 2.00x
User PnL: $130.72

Yes position

Will Houston Dynamo win on 2026-03-07?

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 28.5%
Multiplier: 3.51x
User PnL: $91.2

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $49.96

No position

Will Jesse Armstrong - Mountainhead win Best Director of a Movie for Television at the 78th DGA Awards?

Ends Feb 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $47.58

No position

Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 1?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.96

Yes position

OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 72.5%
Multiplier: 1.38x
User PnL: $37.08

No position

Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.49

No position

Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in March 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.15

Yes position

Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27

Yes position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 22, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $19

No position

Will "Ice Out" or "Fuck Ice" be said at the Oscars?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.13

No position

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.84

Yes position

Will TISZA win 50-54% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.03

Yes position

Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.28

No position

Israel x Syria security agreement by March 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.22

Yes position

Will Newcastle United advance to the round of 16?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.68

Yes position

Metamask FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 25%
Multiplier: 4.00x
User PnL: $8.32

No position

Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 87.5%
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $7.57

Yes position

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $7.18

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in April 2026?

No 77% 886 shares
Will Melania say "Peace" during Fostering the Future Together event on March 24?

No 76% 555 shares
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on March 23?

No 68% 1,118 shares
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?

Yes 49% 9 shares
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?

No 86% 740 shares
Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31, 2026?

No 66% 120 shares
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?

No 88% 740 shares
Mistral AI IPO before 2027?

No 87% 597 shares
Mistral AI IPO before 2027?

No 87% 599 shares
Mistral AI IPO before 2027?

No 87% 232 shares
Mistral AI IPO before 2027?

No 88% 1,812 shares
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 14?

No 58% 915 shares