No position
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 64.5%
- Current value
- $8.47
- Potential payout
- $13.12
- Potential profit
- $4.66
- Multiplier
- 1.55x
- User PnL
- $0.46
Polymarket Trader
BaleaSafado
0xba04735c10f476e20182a5d3809de57123e7e9b0
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $41.1
- Realized PnL
- $11.33
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 6
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 85%
- Current value
- $8
- Potential payout
- $9.41
- Potential profit
- $1.41
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- -$0
No position
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $7.95
- Potential payout
- $9.41
- Potential profit
- $1.46
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- -$0.05
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $7.96
- Potential payout
- $9.09
- Potential profit
- $1.14
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- -$0.05
No position
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87%
- Current value
- $7.73
- Potential payout
- $8.89
- Potential profit
- $1.16
- Multiplier
- 1.15x
- User PnL
- -$0.27
No position
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 73.5%
- Current value
- $0.99
- Potential payout
- $1.35
- Potential profit
- $0.36
- Multiplier
- 1.36x
- User PnL
- -$0.01
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 68.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.46x
- User PnL
- $2.98
No position
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $2.32
Yes position
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.3
Yes position
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $1.23
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 71.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.40x
- User PnL
- $0.96
No position
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.63
Yes position
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.3%
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $0.25
No position
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in June?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 72.2%
- Multiplier
- 1.39x
- User PnL
- $0.22
No position
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $0.21
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.9%
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $0.19
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.19
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $0.18
No position
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.1
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.1
Yes position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $0.09
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.08
No position
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.07
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 79.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.26x
- User PnL
- $0.06
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 59.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.68x
- User PnL
- $0.05
No position
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.04
No position
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in May?
Ends Jun 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.03
Yes position
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 47.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.11x
- User PnL
- $0.02
No position
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $0.01
No position
Will Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.2%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $0.01
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?No 59% 1.79 shares
- Will annual inflation be 3.7% in June?No 75.8% 10.84 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?No 56% 16 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No 70% 15.68 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?No 50% 16 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No 51% 15.69 shares
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?No 61% 13.11 shares
- Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?Yes 90% 10.25 shares
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?No 60% 14.81 shares
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?No 54% 14.81 shares
- Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?Yes 78% 10.26 shares
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?Yes 21.2% 36.52 shares