Yes position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 28.5%
- Current value
- $92.4
- Potential payout
- $324.34
- Potential profit
- $231.94
- Multiplier
- 3.51x
- User PnL
- -$5.98
Polymarket Trader
0xba1f...4258
0xba1fda79aa26888e0536247cee7c67c6b5294258
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $219.92
- Realized PnL
- $1.18K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 10
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $13.26
- Potential payout
- $139.57
- Potential profit
- $126.31
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$31.74
Yes position
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.1%
- Current value
- $1
- Potential payout
- $90.53
- Potential profit
- $89.53
- Multiplier
- 90.91x
- User PnL
- -$9.79
N
No position
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17?
Ends Jul 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $67.64
- Potential payout
- $73.12
- Potential profit
- $5.48
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $22.17
Yes position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $0.24
- Potential payout
- $36.84
- Potential profit
- $36.6
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- -$7.96
Yes position
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 60.5%
- Current value
- $18.94
- Potential payout
- $31.3
- Potential profit
- $12.36
- Multiplier
- 1.65x
- User PnL
- $12.68
Yes position
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.3%
- Current value
- $3.01
- Potential payout
- $24.44
- Potential profit
- $21.43
- Multiplier
- 8.13x
- User PnL
- $0.59
No position
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19?
Ends Jul 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 83%
- Current value
- $19.28
- Potential payout
- $23.23
- Potential profit
- $3.95
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $4.17
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.1%
- Current value
- $0.41
- Potential payout
- $19.83
- Potential profit
- $19.43
- Multiplier
- 48.78x
- User PnL
- -$5.13
No position
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98%
- Current value
- $3.75
- Potential payout
- $3.83
- Potential profit
- $0.08
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $1.22
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 18, 2026?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $131.48
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $83.96
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $83.43
Yes position
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $79.72
No position
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.4%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $68.24
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- User PnL
- $65
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $59.92
Yes position
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $58.97
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $49.49
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $44.6
No position
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $42.98
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET
Ends Apr 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40.65
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $40.4
No position
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $39.76
Yes position
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $38.28
No position
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $38.11
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.36
Down position
XRP Up or Down - April 21, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.88
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET
Ends Apr 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.35
Up position
XRP Up or Down - April 21, 6AM ET
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.3
Up position
Solana Up or Down - April 19, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET
Ends Apr 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.73
N
No position
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27?
Ends Jun 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $24.45
Up position
XRP Up or Down - April 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.34
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.53
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?No 40% 140.54 shares
- Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?No 52.9% 18.81 shares
- Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?No 56.9% 25.22 shares
- Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?No 36% 22.06 shares
- Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?No 18.5% 23.24 shares
- Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?No 35% 51.22 shares
- Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27?No 27% 18.29 shares
- Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27?No 42% 3.64 shares
- Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27?No 29% 39.72 shares
- Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27?No 18% 144.94 shares
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?Yes 8.4% 14.88 shares
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?Yes 8.7% 145.75 shares