Yes position
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $26
- Potential payout
- $4K
- Potential profit
- $3.97K
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- -$1.97K
Polymarket Trader
ImAdUmDuM
@liukaiwen_
0xba38f6073ca6434b91e9969d66d2a17d6075f74d
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $4.9K
- Realized PnL
- $15.2K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 18
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- Current value
- $3.97K
- Potential payout
- $4K
- Potential profit
- $26
- User PnL
- $1.97K
Yes position
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $12.93
- Potential payout
- $1.99K
- Potential profit
- $1.98K
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- -$8.95
Yes position
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 4%
- Current value
- $69.64
- Potential payout
- $1.76K
- Potential profit
- $1.69K
- Multiplier
- 25.32x
- User PnL
- $2.65
Yes position
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.7%
- Current value
- $99.75
- Potential payout
- $1.5K
- Potential profit
- $1.4K
- Multiplier
- 15.04x
- User PnL
- $0.75
Yes position
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 21%
- Current value
- $167.6
- Potential payout
- $800
- Potential profit
- $632.4
- Multiplier
- 4.77x
- User PnL
- -$29.2
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 24.5%
- Current value
- $165.82
- Potential payout
- $676.83
- Potential profit
- $511.01
- Multiplier
- 4.08x
- User PnL
- $40.78
No position
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.3
- Potential payout
- $600
- Potential profit
- $599.7
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$119.7
Yes position
Josh O'Connor announced as next James Bond?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.75
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $499.25
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$0.25
Yes position
Jack Lowdon announced as next James Bond?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.75
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $499.25
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$0.25
Yes position
James Collier announced as next James Bond?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.75
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $499.25
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$0.25
Yes position
Pierce Brosnan announced as next James Bond?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.73
- Potential payout
- $483.4
- Potential profit
- $482.68
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$0.24
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 43%
- Current value
- $193.5
- Potential payout
- $450
- Potential profit
- $256.5
- Multiplier
- 2.33x
- User PnL
- -$9
Yes position
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 25.5%
- Current value
- $66.3
- Potential payout
- $260
- Potential profit
- $193.7
- Multiplier
- 3.92x
- User PnL
- -$6.5
No position
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $225
- Potential profit
- $225
- User PnL
- -$63
Yes position
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 64.5%
- Current value
- $96.75
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $53.25
- Multiplier
- 1.55x
- User PnL
- $21.75
Yes position
Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 18,000 in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 18%
- Current value
- $21.6
- Potential payout
- $120
- Potential profit
- $98.4
- Multiplier
- 5.56x
- User PnL
- -$0
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in June 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Current value
- $3.1
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $16.9
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- $0.1
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Haiti position
Spread: Brazil (-4.5)
Ends Jun 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $9.01K
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 38-39°F on December 28?
Ends Dec 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $983.18
No position
Will the government shutdown end November 12?
Ends Nov 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $750.91
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on December 28?
Ends Dec 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $481.37
Brazil position
Spread: Brazil (-4.5)
Ends Jun 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.5%
- Multiplier
- 6.06x
- User PnL
- $430.5
Yes position
US strike on Colombia by December 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 21.5%
- Multiplier
- 4.65x
- User PnL
- $303.62
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $285.98
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 44.7%
- Multiplier
- 2.24x
- User PnL
- $260
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on November 6?
Ends Nov 6, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $255.15
Yes position
US government shutdown Saturday?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $253.83
No position
Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 31?
Ends Dec 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $242.99
Yes position
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,050 (HIGH) in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $222
Yes position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.1%
- Multiplier
- 95.24x
- User PnL
- $185.6
No position
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $172.14
No position
Government shutdown on Saturday?
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $165.85
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- $159.19
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $140
Yes position
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $134.98
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $132.59
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on October 30?
Ends Oct 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $130.95
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 59-60°F on November 7?
Ends Nov 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $130
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on November 2?
Ends Nov 2, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $128.5
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $128.46
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 40.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.47x
- User PnL
- $121.03
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in June 2026?Yes 15% 20 shares
- Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?Yes 4.6% 799.98 shares
- Spread: Brazil (-4.5)Haiti 83% 166.17 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?Yes 19% 20 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?Yes 19% 30 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?Yes 19% 271.82 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?Yes 36% 105 shares
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 11.8% 350 shares
- Spread: Brazil (-4.5)Haiti 83% 304.99 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?No 70% 21.5 shares
- Will Texas win the 2026 College World Series?Yes 0.1% 156 shares
- Spread: Brazil (-4.5)Haiti 82% 500 shares