Yes position
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $750.61
- Potential profit
- $750.61
- User PnL
- -$4
Polymarket Trader
drunkobunko
0xba89b38cc842b40bedb004c211849ce9f5a0468c
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $9.57
- Realized PnL
- $299.31
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $445.83
- Potential profit
- $445.83
- User PnL
- -$35
Yes position
Will Progressive Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.18
- Potential payout
- $350
- Potential profit
- $349.83
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.88
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Kazakhstan by September 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.16
- Potential payout
- $320
- Potential profit
- $319.84
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$1.12
Yes position
Will Israel strike Iraq by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $241.38
- Potential profit
- $241.38
- User PnL
- -$24.04
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country by September 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $0.57
- Potential payout
- $190
- Potential profit
- $189.43
- Multiplier
- 333.33x
- User PnL
- -$0.57
Yes position
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $0.38
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $149.63
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.68
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/North Africa country by September 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $0.6
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $149.4
- Multiplier
- 250.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.45
Yes position
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?
Ends Jan 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $141.69
- Potential profit
- $141.69
- User PnL
- -$37.96
Yes position
US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $135.67
- Potential profit
- $135.67
- User PnL
- -$9.33
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE by September 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $0.78
- Potential payout
- $130
- Potential profit
- $129.22
- Multiplier
- 166.67x
- User PnL
- -$0.26
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt by September 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $0.54
- Potential payout
- $119.99
- Potential profit
- $119.45
- Multiplier
- 222.22x
- User PnL
- -$0.54
Yes position
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $109.99
- Potential profit
- $109.99
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy by September 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $0.6
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $99.4
- Multiplier
- 166.67x
- User PnL
- -$0.4
Yes position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$13.38
Yes position
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.7%
- Current value
- $5.37
- Potential payout
- $94.99
- Potential profit
- $89.62
- Multiplier
- 17.70x
- User PnL
- -$3.98
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on January 17, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $90.91
- Potential profit
- $90.91
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country by September 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $0.4
- Potential payout
- $90
- Potential profit
- $89.6
- Multiplier
- 222.22x
- User PnL
- -$0.68
Yes position
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?
Ends Jan 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $88.03
- Potential profit
- $88.03
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on January 19, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $83.33
- Potential profit
- $83.33
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on January 26, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $83.33
- Potential profit
- $83.33
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on January 22, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $83.33
- Potential profit
- $83.33
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $78.68
- Potential profit
- $78.68
- User PnL
- -$21.5
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Israel strike Iraq by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $65.1
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.61
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.48
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.1
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?
Ends May 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.8
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.6
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.4
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.2
Yes position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 14?
Ends Jan 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.53
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.2
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.01
Yes position
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.7
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.3
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.8
Yes position
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.14
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.42
Yes position
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.56
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.06
Yes position
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.92
Yes position
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7%
- Multiplier
- 14.29x
- User PnL
- $0.78
Yes position
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.67
Yes position
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.52
No position
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.42
Yes position
Will Israel strike 2 countries in January 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026?Yes 4.4% 22 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Yes 19% 6 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy by September 30, 2026?Yes 1% 45 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country by September 30, 2026?Yes 0.6% 190 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?Yes 26% 5 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country by September 30, 2026?Yes 1.2% 37.1 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt by September 30, 2026?Yes 0.9% 5.93 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey by September 30, 2026?Yes 2.8% 15 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/North Africa country by September 30, 2026?Yes 0.7% 11.25 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE by September 30, 2026?Yes 0.8% 130 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Kazakhstan by September 30, 2026?Yes 0.4% 320 shares
- Argentina vs. Switzerland: Neither team to score first?Yes 10% 10 shares