Karamazov89

Implied probability: 53.5%
Current value: $19.94
Potential payout: $37.26
Potential profit: $17.33
Multiplier: 1.87x
User PnL: -$1.72

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 25?

Implied probability: 12%
Current value: $3.61
Potential payout: $30.07
Potential profit: $26.46
Multiplier: 8.33x
User PnL: -$0.6

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 26?

Implied probability: 48%
Current value: $14.31
Potential payout: $29.82
Potential profit: $15.51
Multiplier: 2.08x
User PnL: $1.19

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 26?

Implied probability: 38.5%
Current value: $9.63
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $15.38
Multiplier: 2.60x
User PnL: -$1.13

No position

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 26?

Implied probability: 65%
Current value: $13.69
Potential payout: $21.05
Potential profit: $7.37
Multiplier: 1.54x
User PnL: $2.74

No position

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 25?

Implied probability: 34.5%
Current value: $6.9
Potential payout: $19.99
Potential profit: $13.1
Multiplier: 2.90x
User PnL: -$5.1

Yes position

Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 23.5%
Current value: $4.38
Potential payout: $18.64
Potential profit: $14.26
Multiplier: 4.26x
User PnL: -$0.77

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 25?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.04
Potential payout: $17.86
Potential profit: $17.82
Multiplier: 500.00x
User PnL: -$0.96

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 25?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $16
Potential profit: $15.99
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.97

No position

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25?

Implied probability: 30.5%
Current value: $4.8
Potential payout: $15.74
Potential profit: $10.94
Multiplier: 3.28x
User PnL: -$0.5

No position

Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Implied probability: 73%
Current value: $11.13
Potential payout: $15.25
Potential profit: $4.12
Multiplier: 1.37x
User PnL: $1.17

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 25?

Implied probability: 43%
Current value: $6.11
Potential payout: $14.21
Potential profit: $8.1
Multiplier: 2.33x
User PnL: $4.12

No position

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 8%
Current value: $0.98
Potential payout: $12.29
Potential profit: $11.3
Multiplier: 12.50x
User PnL: -$3.32

Yes position

Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 39.5%
Current value: $4.32
Potential payout: $10.93
Potential profit: $6.61
Multiplier: 2.53x
User PnL: $2.21

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 26?

Implied probability: 25%
Current value: $2.64
Potential payout: $10.57
Potential profit: $7.93
Multiplier: 4.00x
User PnL: -$1.01

No position

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 25?

Implied probability: 37.5%
Current value: $3.91
Potential payout: $10.42
Potential profit: $6.52
Multiplier: 2.67x
User PnL: $0.21

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 25?

Implied probability: 34.5%
Current value: $3.56
Potential payout: $10.31
Potential profit: $6.75
Multiplier: 2.90x
User PnL: $0.15

No position

Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 25?

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $0.22
Potential payout: $10.22
Potential profit: $10
Multiplier: 46.73x
User PnL: -$4.48

No position

Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 25?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $10.15
Potential payout: $10.15
Potential profit: $0.01
User PnL: $1.52

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 37°C on June 26?

Implied probability: 37.5%
Current value: $3.8
Potential payout: $10.14
Potential profit: $6.33
Multiplier: 2.67x
User PnL: $0.05

No position

Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Implied probability: 28%
Current value: $2.83
Potential payout: $10.11
Potential profit: $7.28
Multiplier: 3.57x
User PnL: -$1.31

No position

Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 25?

Implied probability: 70.5%
Current value: $7.06
Potential payout: $10.02
Potential profit: $2.95
Multiplier: 1.42x
User PnL: $0.65

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 25?

Implied probability: 2.7%
Current value: $0.23
Potential payout: $8.34
Potential profit: $8.11
Multiplier: 37.04x
User PnL: -$0.36

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $107.67

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $79

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $74

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET

Ends Apr 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $66.49

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $58.33

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $55

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $53.52

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $52

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $52

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $52

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $52

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50.98

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50.97

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $45

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44.97

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.87

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET

Ends Apr 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.48

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 24?

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.93

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $36.08

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET