yu25252525

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $110.82
Potential payout: $1.17K
Potential profit: $1.06K
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$5.83

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $60
Potential payout: $800
Potential profit: $740
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: $60

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 5.7%
Current value: $43.51
Potential payout: $770
Potential profit: $726.5
Multiplier: 17.70x
User PnL: $43.51

Yes position

Will Russia invade another country in 2026?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $52.6
Potential payout: $618.83
Potential profit: $566.23
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$34.04

Yes position

Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Implied probability: 10.1%
Current value: $57.24
Potential payout: $566.77
Potential profit: $509.53
Multiplier: 9.90x
User PnL: $57.24

Yes position

Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Implied probability: 10.4%
Current value: $54.52
Potential payout: $524.2
Potential profit: $469.68
Multiplier: 9.62x
User PnL: $54.52

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 13.2%
Current value: $61.94
Potential payout: $471
Potential profit: $409.06
Multiplier: 7.60x
User PnL: $61.94

Yes position

Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $28.44
Potential payout: $437.61
Potential profit: $409.17
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$23.63

Yes position

Will "Disclosure Day" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?

Ends Jan 21, 2027

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $65.74
Potential payout: $398.43
Potential profit: $332.69
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: $65.74

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 12.6%
Current value: $44.43
Potential payout: $353.99
Potential profit: $309.57
Multiplier: 7.97x
User PnL: $44.43

No position

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Implied probability: 93.7%
Current value: $299.68
Potential payout: $320
Potential profit: $20.32
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $299.68

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 93.8%
Current value: $240.94
Potential payout: $257
Potential profit: $16.06
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $240.94

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 13.9%
Current value: $33.24
Potential payout: $240
Potential profit: $206.76
Multiplier: 7.22x
User PnL: $33.24

Yes position

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $34.8
Potential payout: $239.99
Potential profit: $205.19
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: -$20.1

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 19.8%
Current value: $43.45
Potential payout: $220
Potential profit: $176.55
Multiplier: 5.06x
User PnL: $43.45

No position

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $143.2
Potential payout: $160
Potential profit: $16.8
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $29.6

No position

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $132.67
Potential payout: $145
Potential profit: $12.32
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $4.04

Yes position

NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $18.85
Potential payout: $130
Potential profit: $111.15
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: $4.55

No position

Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?

Implied probability: 84%
Current value: $101.64
Potential payout: $121
Potential profit: $19.36
Multiplier: 1.19x
User PnL: $11.51

Yes position

Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 Action of the Year?

Ends Dec 13, 2026

Implied probability: 48.5%
Current value: $58.38
Potential payout: $120.38
Potential profit: $62
Multiplier: 2.06x
User PnL: $58.38

No position

Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Ends Dec 6, 2026

Implied probability: 98.8%
Current value: $109.43
Potential payout: $110.82
Potential profit: $1.39
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $109.43

No position

Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $93.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $6.5
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $93.5

No position

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?

Implied probability: 84%
Current value: $63.6
Potential payout: $75.71
Potential profit: $12.11
Multiplier: 1.19x
User PnL: $6.89

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.8%
User PnL: $22.6

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.72

No position

Will the US not strike Iran by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.93

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.3

No position

Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 99.9%
User PnL: $7.79

No position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.9

No position

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.95

Yes position

Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.5

No position

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.7%
User PnL: $0.77

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 15.5%
Multiplier: 6.47x
User PnL: $0.7

Yes position

Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027?

Implied probability: 11%
Multiplier: 9.09x
User PnL: $0.64

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

No position

Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0

Yes position

Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?

Implied probability: 29.5%
Multiplier: 3.39x
User PnL: -$0.24

Yes position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 20.5%
Multiplier: 4.89x
User PnL: -$0.98

Yes position

Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5.19

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?