Polymarket Trader

0xBb7E849262f3cECb3EF9dEd5b5Eba80Cf7c10bcF-1765989290159

0xbb7e849262f3cecb3ef9ded5b5eba80cf7c10bcf

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $35.26
Realized PnL: $605.25
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 10
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $63.55
Potential profit: $63.55
User PnL: -$1

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $55.32
Potential profit: $55.32
User PnL: -$52

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 26.5%
Current value: $10.6
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $29.4
Multiplier: 3.77x
User PnL: $0.6

Yes position

Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 46%
Current value: $17.87
Potential payout: $38.85
Potential profit: $20.98
Multiplier: 2.17x
User PnL: $0.39

Yes position

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $31.25
Potential profit: $31.25
User PnL: -$1

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $27.78
Potential profit: $27.78
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $13.16
Potential profit: $13.16
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 56.5%
Current value: $6.69
Potential payout: $11.84
Potential profit: $5.15
Multiplier: 1.77x
User PnL: -$0.53

No position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.38
Potential profit: $6.38
User PnL: -$5.17

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $0.1
Potential payout: $4.17
Potential profit: $4.06
Multiplier: 40.00x
User PnL: -$0.9

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $162.11

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $73.17

No position

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $70.15

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET

Ends Mar 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $61.26

No position

Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42.06

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET

Ends Mar 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.74

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?

Ends Apr 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22

Yes position

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.69

No position

Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.45

No position

Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.22

No position

Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.01

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET

Ends Mar 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.92

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET

Ends Mar 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.8

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.93

Yes position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.92

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.92

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
User PnL: $6.5

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.71

Yes position

Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5.36

Yes position

Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 6, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.24

Yes position

Will Iran strike UAE again in March?

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.8

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.6

No position

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.43

No position

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.24

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Yes 24% 4.17 shares
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Yes 7.6% 13.16 shares
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?

Yes 1.6% 63.55 shares
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?

Yes 3.2% 31.25 shares
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

Yes 38% 12.26 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

No 94% 55.32 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

No 25% 40 shares
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?

No 67% 22.62 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?

No 95.1% 47.09 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?

No 36% 27.78 shares
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

Yes 57% 30.51 shares
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

Yes 45% 51.11 shares