Yes position
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $3.89
- Potential payout
- $1.11K
- Potential profit
- $1.11K
- Multiplier
- 285.71x
- User PnL
- -$6.11
Polymarket Trader
SerDress
0xbc398146ea6766b6898191030489c540111da6e9
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $118.7
- Realized PnL
- $124.17
- Win rate
- 56.5%
- Open positions
- 13
- Closed positions
- 23
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $40.5
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $259.5
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- $21.9
Yes position
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 6%
- Current value
- $14.88
- Potential payout
- $250
- Potential profit
- $235.13
- Multiplier
- 16.81x
- User PnL
- -$40.63
Yes position
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.1%
- Current value
- $4.7
- Potential payout
- $154.23
- Potential profit
- $149.53
- Multiplier
- 32.79x
- User PnL
- -$1.62
Yes position
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 19.5%
- Current value
- $24.31
- Potential payout
- $125
- Potential profit
- $100.69
- Multiplier
- 5.14x
- User PnL
- $4.31
Yes position
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.9%
- Current value
- $17.31
- Potential payout
- $125
- Potential profit
- $107.69
- Multiplier
- 7.22x
- User PnL
- -$2.69
Yes position
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $90.91
- Potential profit
- $90.91
- User PnL
- -$20
No position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?
Ends Jun 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $80
- Potential profit
- $80
- User PnL
- -$9.6
Yes position
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 18.5%
- Current value
- $13.11
- Potential payout
- $70.85
- Potential profit
- $57.74
- Multiplier
- 5.41x
- User PnL
- $3.9
No position
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $53.95
- Potential profit
- $53.95
- User PnL
- -$20
No position
Will Trump say "Obama" during Monday news conference?
Ends Apr 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $41
- Potential profit
- $41
- User PnL
- -$8
No position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $29.07
- Potential profit
- $29.07
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $17.24
- Potential profit
- $17.24
- User PnL
- -$10
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $152
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $45.66
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $35.38
Yes position
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (LOW) in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- $14.19
Yes position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.61
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET
Ends Apr 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.73
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET
Ends Apr 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4.39
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET
Ends Apr 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.19
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET
Ends Apr 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.16
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET
Ends Apr 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.5
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET
Ends Apr 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.09
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET
Ends Apr 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.74
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.61
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET
Ends Apr 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.63
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET
Ends Apr 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.29
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$2.5
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET
Ends Apr 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.95
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET
Ends Apr 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$3.4
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET
Ends Apr 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5.71
No position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10.8
No position
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$36.91
Yes position
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?
Ends Apr 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$78.87
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?Yes 58% 17.24 shares
- Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day?Yes 4.1% 154.23 shares
- Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?No 37.1% 53.95 shares
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?No 68.8% 29.07 shares
- Iran closes its airspace by June 15?Yes 99.6% 55.88 shares
- Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 0.9% 1,111.11 shares
- Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 16% 125 shares
- Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 16% 125 shares
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (LOW) in June?Yes 27.3% 146.46 shares
- Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Yes 22% 90.91 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Yes 2.8% 357.14 shares
- Iran closes its airspace by June 15?Yes 17.9% 55.89 shares