ZePeba

Implied probability: 95.8%
Current value: $1.07K
Potential payout: $1.11K
Potential profit: $47.38
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $0.4

No position

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Implied probability: 43.5%
Current value: $356.56
Potential payout: $819.67
Potential profit: $463.11
Multiplier: 2.30x
User PnL: -$143.44

Yes position

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Implied probability: 22.3%
Current value: $110.48
Potential payout: $495.43
Potential profit: $384.95
Multiplier: 4.48x
User PnL: -$89.52

Yes position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $314.43
Potential profit: $314.43
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Trump talk to Yoon Suk Yeol in April?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $253.62
Potential profit: $253.62
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 94.4%
Current value: $232.34
Potential payout: $246.25
Potential profit: $13.91
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $2.34

No position

Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?

Implied probability: 63.5%
Current value: $102.38
Potential payout: $161.22
Potential profit: $58.85
Multiplier: 1.57x
User PnL: $2.38

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $132
Potential profit: $132
User PnL: -$66

No position

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $110.63
Potential payout: $125
Potential profit: $14.38
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $10.63

No position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 81.4%
Current value: $97.54
Potential payout: $119.9
Potential profit: $22.36
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: -$2.46

Yes position

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?

Implied probability: 4.6%
Current value: $4.84
Potential payout: $106.45
Potential profit: $101.61
Multiplier: 21.98x
User PnL: -$20.16

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $100.96
Potential payout: $101.52
Potential profit: $0.56
User PnL: $0.96

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $81.66
Potential profit: $81.66
User PnL: -$5

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $52.04
Potential payout: $57.5
Potential profit: $5.46
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $6.04

No position

Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 98.5%
Current value: $47.26
Potential payout: $48.01
Potential profit: $0.74
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $0.26

No position

Will Trump meet with Pope Leo XIV in 2026?

Implied probability: 84.5%
Current value: $30.62
Potential payout: $36.23
Potential profit: $5.62
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $5.62

Yes position

Will Claude go down 12+ times in May?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $33.43
Potential profit: $33.43
User PnL: -$25

Fnatic position

LoL: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Season

Ends May 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $27.03
Potential profit: $27.03
User PnL: -$10

No position

Will Trump meet with Lula da Silva in 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $23.73
Potential profit: $23.73
User PnL: -$5

No position

Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $21.45
Potential profit: $21.45
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20.83
Potential profit: $20.83
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $8.7
Potential profit: $8.7
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.23
Potential profit: $3.23
User PnL: -$1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $80.35

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $56.86

Yes position

Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $46.92

Yes position

Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $45.95

Yes position

Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Implied probability: 7%
Multiplier: 14.29x
User PnL: $37.52

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $36.85

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.96

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET

Ends Apr 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.02

Yes position

Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.12

Yes position

Will Athletic Club win on 2026-04-21?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.23

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.5

Pistons position

Pistons vs. Magic

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.39

RED Canids position

LoL: RED Canids vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season

Ends Apr 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.38

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.26

Team Liquid position

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage

Ends Apr 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.6

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET

Ends Apr 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3

Yes position

Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.82

No position

Trump posts himself as Jesus again in April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.71

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 95.6%
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $2.32

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.76

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?