lilili99

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $1.33K
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $172.5
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: -$2.5

Yes position

Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $5
Potential payout: $999.9
Potential profit: $994.9
Multiplier: 200.00x
User PnL: -$12

Yes position

Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $4.4
Potential payout: $799.98
Potential profit: $795.58
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$28.6

Yes position

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Implied probability: 14.8%
Current value: $118
Potential payout: $799.97
Potential profit: $681.98
Multiplier: 6.78x
User PnL: $44.8

Yes position

Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $645.69
Potential profit: $645.69
User PnL: -$1.94

Yes position

Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $3.57
Potential payout: $595.31
Potential profit: $591.73
Multiplier: 166.67x
User PnL: -$0

No position

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

Implied probability: 95.9%
Current value: $527.18
Potential payout: $550
Potential profit: $22.83
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $57.63

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $31.5
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $268.5
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$155.5

Yes position

Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $1.5
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $198.5
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$1.7

No position

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Implied probability: 94.6%
Current value: $189.2
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $10.8
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $4.8

No position

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

Implied probability: 97.5%
Current value: $194.9
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $5.1
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $12.7

Yes position

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$20.2

No position

US recession by end of 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2027

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $176.93
Potential payout: $199.92
Potential profit: $22.99
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $42.98

No position

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of December?

Implied probability: 95.5%
Current value: $148.37
Potential payout: $155.36
Potential profit: $6.99
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $39.62

No position

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December?

Implied probability: 96.7%
Current value: $112.53
Potential payout: $116.43
Potential profit: $3.9
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $5.41

No position

Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $87.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $12.5
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $14.5

No position

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $91.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $8.5
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $21.5

No position

Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 60.5%
Current value: $60.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $39.5
Multiplier: 1.65x
User PnL: $10.5

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $93.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $6.5
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $15.5

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $83.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $16.5
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $2.5

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.25
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99.75
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$72.75

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $89.49
Potential payout: $99.99
Potential profit: $10.5
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $18.5

HANJIN BRION position

LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $49.98
Potential profit: $49.98
User PnL: -$5

Resolved Context

Closed positions

KT Rolster position

LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5)

Ends Nov 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.34K

No position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $222.63

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $95,000 in November?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $222

Yes position

Will the Monad public sale commitments be less than $400M?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $198

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $110.15

Yes position

Will more people travel on Thanksgiving than last year?

Ends Nov 27, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $108.52

Yes position

Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 in November?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $106.84

No position

Maduro out in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $102.4

No position

Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $100

Yes position

Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 in November?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $98.16

Mavericks position

Mavericks vs. Lakers

Ends Oct 16, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $91.83

No position

Will China's annual inflation decrease by ≤-0.3% in December?

Ends Jan 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $84.95

76ers position

Magic vs. 76ers

Ends Oct 27, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $80

Warriors position

Nuggets vs. Warriors

Ends Oct 24, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $79

Bulls position

Hawks vs. Bulls

Ends Oct 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $74.99

Dplus KIA position

LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs

Ends Feb 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $71.65

Yes position

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $69.09

No position

Will Gen.G win First Stand 2026?

Ends Mar 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $68

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $66.93

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $61.2

Yes position

Infinex FDV above $2B one day after launch?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $59.62

Vivo Keyd Stars position

LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs PSG Talon (BO3)

Ends Oct 19, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $59

Yes position

Will Solana dip to $140 in November?