N
No position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?
Ends Jun 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.9K
- Potential profit
- $2.9K
- User PnL
- -$15.21
Polymarket Trader
0xbCF96B9Cf8335F23D6c0904deA605dd144179b13-1761601516412
0xbcf96b9cf8335f23d6c0904dea605dd144179b13
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $913.88
- Realized PnL
- $400.18
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Y
Yes position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $13.4
- Potential payout
- $2.23K
- Potential profit
- $2.22K
- Multiplier
- 166.67x
- User PnL
- -$19.62
Yes position
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 74%
- Current value
- $276.63
- Potential payout
- $373.82
- Potential profit
- $97.19
- Multiplier
- 1.35x
- User PnL
- $7.1
Yes position
Trump out as President by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $300
- User PnL
- -$3
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.2%
- Current value
- $30.45
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $269.55
- Multiplier
- 9.85x
- User PnL
- $13.25
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $299.98
- Potential profit
- $299.98
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 20%
- Current value
- $46.97
- Potential payout
- $234.86
- Potential profit
- $187.89
- Multiplier
- 5.00x
- User PnL
- -$81.36
Yes position
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?
Ends Apr 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $205.1
- Potential profit
- $205.1
- User PnL
- -$31.85
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$1.8
Yes position
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 57.5%
- Current value
- $115
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $85
- Multiplier
- 1.74x
- User PnL
- $45
Y
Yes position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $199.9
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $0.1
- User PnL
- $1.1
N
No position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.3
- Potential payout
- $199.99
- Potential profit
- $199.69
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$1.1
Yes position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.4%
- Current value
- $12.6
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $137.4
- Multiplier
- 11.90x
- User PnL
- $0.3
No position
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- Current value
- $99.45
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $0.55
- User PnL
- $2.55
No position
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - 19?
Ends Apr 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $60
- Potential profit
- $60
- User PnL
- -$27.6
Yes position
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - April 26?
Ends Apr 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$30.5
Yes position
Iran leadership change by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.4%
- Current value
- $0.67
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $49.32
- Multiplier
- 74.07x
- User PnL
- -$10.82
Yes position
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 79.7%
- Current value
- $31.88
- Potential payout
- $40
- Potential profit
- $8.12
- Multiplier
- 1.25x
- User PnL
- -$0.56
Yes position
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $40
- Potential profit
- $40
- User PnL
- -$9.6
No position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 71.5%
- Current value
- $28.6
- Potential payout
- $40
- Potential profit
- $11.4
- Multiplier
- 1.40x
- User PnL
- $2.2
No position
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $29.76
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $0.24
- User PnL
- $3.06
Yes position
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit?
Ends Jul 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $28.05
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $1.95
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $7.65
Yes position
Pam Bondi testifies before congress by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $26.76
- Potential profit
- $26.76
- User PnL
- -$6.56
Yes position
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Current value
- $0.22
- Potential payout
- $24.26
- Potential profit
- $24.04
- Multiplier
- 111.11x
- User PnL
- -$0.63
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $44.12
Yes position
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?
Ends Apr 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $38.77
Yes position
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $38.3
Yes position
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.2
Yes position
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 9, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $26
No position
Will Trump dance during UFC 327?
Ends Apr 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.75
No position
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.24
No position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.75
Yes position
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.9%
- Multiplier
- 20.62x
- User PnL
- $15.47
Yes position
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 6 - 12?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.85
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14
No position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Barack Obama by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $12.12
Yes position
Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.75
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11
Yes position
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in March 2026?
Ends Apr 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.78
No position
Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?
Ends Apr 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.75
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.03
Yes position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $9.25
No position
Trump posts himself as Jesus again in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.25
No position
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 10, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.5
No position
Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - April 26?
Ends Apr 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8
No position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- User PnL
- $7.8
Yes position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 11, 2026?
Ends Apr 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.79
Yes position
Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.7
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?Yes 1% 1,156.74 shares
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?Yes 3.9% 40 shares
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?Yes 2.5% 500 shares
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?Yes 3.6% 50 shares
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?Yes 3.5% 50 shares
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?Yes 5.4% 100 shares
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?Yes 5.4% 125 shares
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?Yes 5% 250 shares
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?Yes 5% 200 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 78% 100 shares
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?No 96.9% 100 shares
- Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?Yes 74% 30.4 shares