Polymarket Trader

0xbd06c6be618b171296fc2342e20CDaca41c74F1b-1771871324161

0xbd06c6be618b171296fc2342e20cdaca41c74f1b

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $67.69
Realized PnL: -$380.63
Win rate: 9.1%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 11
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $73.87K
Potential profit: $73.87K
User PnL: -$246.28

Yes position

Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $11.75K
Potential profit: $11.75K
User PnL: -$23.49

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?

Ends Mar 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.03K
Potential profit: $6.03K
User PnL: -$579.67

Yes position

Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" this week? (March 15)

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.8K
Potential profit: $4.8K
User PnL: -$9.59

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?

Ends Mar 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.51K
Potential profit: $3.51K
User PnL: -$252.67

No position

Will Trump say "America" or "American" 25+ times during the 2026 State of the Union address?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.32K
Potential profit: $3.32K
User PnL: -$125.17

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET

Ends Feb 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.17K
Potential profit: $3.17K
User PnL: -$31.7

No position

Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during March press conference?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.05K
Potential profit: $3.05K
User PnL: -$54.05

Yes position

Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during March press conference?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.82K
Potential profit: $2.82K
User PnL: -$67.73

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.29K
Potential profit: $2.29K
User PnL: -$265.07

No position

Will Erika Kirk attend the 2026 State of the Union address?

Ends Feb 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.81K
Potential profit: $1.81K
User PnL: -$24.93

Yes position

Will there be less than 8 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.76K
Potential profit: $1.76K
User PnL: -$13.08

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 3.9%
Current value: $67.69
Potential payout: $1.74K
Potential profit: $1.67K
Multiplier: 25.64x
User PnL: -$83.49

No position

Will Powell say "Volatile" during March press conference?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $1.5K
User PnL: -$55.66

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.43K
Potential profit: $1.43K
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.29K
Potential profit: $1.29K
User PnL: -$64.36

Yes position

Will Trump say "Epstein" during the 2026 State of the Union address?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $999.04
Potential profit: $999.04
User PnL: -$144.33

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $871.55
Potential profit: $871.55
User PnL: -$90.89

No position

Will Powell say "Housing" during March press conference?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $749.99
Potential profit: $749.99
User PnL: -$59.6

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?

Ends Mar 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $629.14
Potential profit: $629.14
User PnL: -$68.63

No position

Will Trump say "Olympic" or "Olympics" during the 2026 State of the Union address?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $557.4
Potential profit: $557.4
User PnL: -$93.24

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?

Ends Mar 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $406.84
Potential profit: $406.84
User PnL: -$37.12

Yes position

Will the State of the Union be 180 minutes or longer?

Ends Feb 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $371.61
Potential profit: $371.61
User PnL: -$6.22

No position

Will Trump say "Alien" during the 2026 State of the Union address?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $259.59
Potential profit: $259.59
User PnL: -$53.96

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during the 2026 State of the Union address?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.87

Yes position

Will Trump say "Cookie" during the 2026 State of the Union address?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.59

Yes position

Will Trump say "Peanut" during the 2026 State of the Union address?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.84

Yes position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$2.44

No position

Will Trump say "Hottest" during the 2026 State of the Union address?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5.72

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$6.66

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?

Ends Mar 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$8.04

No position

Will the State of the Union be 80 minutes or longer?

Ends Feb 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$22.97

Yes position

Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$32.38

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$41.48

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?

Ends Mar 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$261.38

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

Yes 5% 629.4 shares
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

Yes 5% 22.2 shares
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

Yes 5% 111 shares
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

Yes 0.2% 3,592.13 shares
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

Yes 12% 117.83 shares
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

Yes 0.8% 186.25 shares
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

Yes 8% 195.75 shares
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

Yes 11.6% 165.45 shares
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

Yes 13% 494.1 shares
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

Yes 1.5% 1,707.17 shares
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

Yes 1.3% 1,698.72 shares
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?

Yes 2.9% 339.33 shares