theginth

Implied probability: 43.5%
Current value: $1.31K
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $1.7K
Multiplier: 2.30x
User PnL: $152.46

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.45K
Potential profit: $2.45K
User PnL: -$125

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 19.4%
Current value: $439.77
Potential payout: $2.27K
Potential profit: $1.83K
Multiplier: 5.17x
User PnL: $239.77

Yes position

Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.22K
Potential profit: $2.22K
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 1.7%
Current value: $30.94
Potential payout: $1.87K
Potential profit: $1.84K
Multiplier: 60.61x
User PnL: -$14.06

Yes position

Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Implied probability: 90%
Current value: $912.12
Potential payout: $1.01K
Potential profit: $101.91
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: $288.14

Yes position

Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?

Implied probability: 44%
Current value: $440.02
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $560.02
Multiplier: 2.27x
User PnL: -$19.31

Yes position

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 23.5%
Current value: $235
Potential payout: $999.99
Potential profit: $764.99
Multiplier: 4.26x
User PnL: -$45

Yes position

Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?

Implied probability: 39.5%
Current value: $394.99
Potential payout: $999.98
Potential profit: $604.99
Multiplier: 2.53x
User PnL: $5

Yes position

Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?

Implied probability: 55.5%
Current value: $554.92
Potential payout: $999.85
Potential profit: $444.93
Multiplier: 1.80x
User PnL: -$43.29

Yes position

Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?

Implied probability: 65.5%
Current value: $534.15
Potential payout: $815.49
Potential profit: $281.35
Multiplier: 1.53x
User PnL: $54.97

Yes position

Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Implied probability: 60%
Current value: $480
Potential payout: $800
Potential profit: $320
Multiplier: 1.67x
User PnL: $8

Yes position

Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $87
Potential payout: $600
Potential profit: $513
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will the Republican Party win the SC-01 House seat?

Implied probability: 69.5%
Current value: $378.64
Potential payout: $544.88
Potential profit: $166.24
Multiplier: 1.44x
User PnL: $8.12

No position

Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Implied probability: 77.5%
Current value: $416.95
Potential payout: $538
Potential profit: $121.05
Multiplier: 1.29x
User PnL: $24.21

Yes position

Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?

Implied probability: 45.5%
Current value: $227.63
Potential payout: $500.27
Potential profit: $272.65
Multiplier: 2.20x
User PnL: $12.47

Yes position

Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

Implied probability: 55.5%
Current value: $277.5
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $222.5
Multiplier: 1.80x
User PnL: $1.2

Yes position

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House

Implied probability: 39.5%
Current value: $197.5
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $302.5
Multiplier: 2.53x
User PnL: $17.5

Yes position

Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?

Implied probability: 76.5%
Current value: $382.49
Potential payout: $499.98
Potential profit: $117.5
Multiplier: 1.31x
User PnL: -$8.5

Yes position

Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state?

Implied probability: 53.5%
Current value: $253.16
Potential payout: $473.19
Potential profit: $220.03
Multiplier: 1.87x
User PnL: -$52.63

Yes position

Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?

Implied probability: 49.5%
Current value: $197.99
Potential payout: $399.98
Potential profit: $201.99
Multiplier: 2.02x
User PnL: -$6

Yes position

Will the Republican Party win the OH-07 House seat?

Implied probability: 61.5%
Current value: $190.25
Potential payout: $309.35
Potential profit: $119.1
Multiplier: 1.63x
User PnL: -$10.83

Yes position

Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?

Implied probability: 84.5%
Current value: $253.5
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $46.5
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $26.5

No position

Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?

Implied probability: 52.5%
Current value: $105.91
Potential payout: $201.72
Potential profit: $95.82
Multiplier: 1.90x
User PnL: $7.18

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 65-104

Ends Nov 4, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $775.43

Yes position

U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $749.76

Yes position

Will the Eagles win Super Bowl 2025?

Ends Feb 9, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $623.15

Yes position

Will Justin Murphy be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $529.3

Yes position

U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7?

Ends Feb 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $286.1

Yes position

India military action against Pakistan before June?

Ends May 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $202.59

Yes position

Will Kanye launch a coin in February?

Ends Feb 28, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $168.51

Yes position

U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $145.65

No position

Will Drake perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?

Ends Feb 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $130.44

No position

Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $122.83

Yes position

Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $116.6

No position

Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?

Ends Jul 7, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $91.8

Yes position

Will there be 155,000,000-160,000,000 votes cast in the U.S. Presidential Election?

Ends Dec 16, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $83.75

Yes position

Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $78

Perry position

PA-10 election: Stelson (D) vs. Perry (R)

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $75.13

Yes position

Will there be between 10 and 13 US strikes on Somalia in February 2026?

Ends Mar 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $70

No position

Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $70

Yes position

Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $62.83

Yes position

Will Bitcoin hit $100k today?

Ends Nov 22, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $57.44

Yes position

US military action against Iran before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $53.94

No position

Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Ends Dec 17, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $52.53

Yes position

U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50.81

No position

Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?