Yes position
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 58%
- Current value
- $9.64
- Potential payout
- $16.63
- Potential profit
- $6.98
- Multiplier
- 1.72x
- User PnL
- -$0.17
Polymarket Trader
0xbd6d...5ed4
0xbd6dd3a152a0c390bd4ad6754d83f24ad9e75ed4
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $72.71
- Realized PnL
- $100.7
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 13
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 40.5%
- Current value
- $5.67
- Potential payout
- $14
- Potential profit
- $8.33
- Multiplier
- 2.47x
- User PnL
- -$0.91
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?
Ends Jul 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 36.5%
- Current value
- $5.11
- Potential payout
- $14
- Potential profit
- $8.89
- Multiplier
- 2.74x
- User PnL
- $0.49
Yes position
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 57.5%
- Current value
- $7.42
- Potential payout
- $12.9
- Potential profit
- $5.48
- Multiplier
- 1.74x
- User PnL
- -$0.58
No position
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $8.18
- Potential payout
- $9.8
- Potential profit
- $1.62
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $3.18
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?
Ends Jul 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 53.5%
- Current value
- $4.91
- Potential payout
- $9.17
- Potential profit
- $4.26
- Multiplier
- 1.87x
- User PnL
- $0.05
No position
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 38.5%
- Current value
- $3.2
- Potential payout
- $8.3
- Potential profit
- $5.1
- Multiplier
- 2.60x
- User PnL
- $0.71
No position
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 52%
- Current value
- $4.16
- Potential payout
- $8
- Potential profit
- $3.84
- Multiplier
- 1.92x
- User PnL
- $0.72
Yes position
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 23.5%
- Current value
- $1.88
- Potential payout
- $8
- Potential profit
- $6.12
- Multiplier
- 4.26x
- User PnL
- -$0.2
Yes position
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $6.58
- Potential payout
- $7.79
- Potential profit
- $1.21
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $0.58
Yes position
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 60.5%
- Current value
- $4.63
- Potential payout
- $7.65
- Potential profit
- $3.02
- Multiplier
- 1.65x
- User PnL
- -$1.41
No position
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?
Ends Jul 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 69.5%
- Current value
- $4.86
- Potential payout
- $7
- Potential profit
- $2.14
- Multiplier
- 1.44x
- User PnL
- $0.17
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?
Ends Jul 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.3%
- Current value
- $6.47
- Potential payout
- $6.59
- Potential profit
- $0.11
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $1.53
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.49
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?
Ends Apr 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.59
Yes position
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.47
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7
Up position
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on March 9?
Ends Mar 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.59
No position
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.79
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.15
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.88
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.52
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.35
No position
Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.25
No position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.49
No position
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.3
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 14?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.66
Yes position
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15% on March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.57
Down position
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on April 20?
Ends Apr 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.57
No position
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.14
No position
Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 7?
Ends Mar 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.02
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.86
No position
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?
Ends Apr 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.71
No position
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.66
No position
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?
Ends Mar 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.37
No position
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.29
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?Yes 53% 9.17 shares
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?No 67% 7 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?Yes 75% 6.59 shares
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?Yes 33% 14 shares
- Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Yes 59% 16.63 shares
- Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?No 30% 8.3 shares
- Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?Yes 33% 11 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 51% 17.84 shares
- Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Yes 79% 7.65 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?Yes 24% 7.75 shares
- Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?No 43% 8 shares
- Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on May 12?Up 49% 15 shares