Yes position
Grok 4.4 released by July 8?
Ends Jul 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $3.58K
- Potential payout
- $3.58K
- Potential profit
- $3.58
- User PnL
- -$0
Polymarket Trader
2Sherlock
0xbd81954a4ebce3a843feb3fc6ebf439cf1c6006d
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $3.67K
- Realized PnL
- $1K
- Win rate
- 68.8%
- Open positions
- 4
- Closed positions
- 16
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.9%
- Current value
- $27.61
- Potential payout
- $569.38
- Potential profit
- $541.77
- Multiplier
- 20.62x
- User PnL
- -$1.3
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $14.63
- Potential payout
- $154.82
- Potential profit
- $140.19
- Multiplier
- 10.58x
- User PnL
- -$1.61
Yes position
Will GPT-Bidi-1 be released by July 17, 2026?
Ends Jul 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.6%
- Current value
- $48.28
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $1.73
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $22.78
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.04K
No position
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $43.2
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40.4
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $36.01
Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.01
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.18
No position
Based FDV above $200M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.41
Yes position
Will GPT-Bidi-1 be released by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.1%
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $4.2
Yes position
Over $7M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.15
Yes position
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.42
Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 6?
Ends Jul 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.22
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$44.22
No position
Over $7M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$97.56
Yes position
Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$100
No position
EdgeX FDV above $600M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$101.3
Yes position
Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$862.23
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Grok 4.4 released by July 8?Yes 99.9% 3,584.78 shares
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes 5.7% 169.38 shares
- Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes 10.5% 154.82 shares
- Will GPT-Bidi-1 be released by July 31, 2026?Yes 83% 30 shares
- Will GPT-Bidi-1 be released by July 17, 2026?Yes 51% 50 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Yes 99.8% 7,567.01 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 6?Yes 99.9% 206 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 99.9% 10,180 shares
- Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?Yes 99.9% 3,417.22 shares
- EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?No 99.9% 9,475.62 shares
- Over $7M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?Yes 99.9% 104.25 shares
- Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?Yes 0.1% 1,314.78 shares