Polymarket Trader

GrupoM4

0xbd920bf7859cd3ceb4f55d223a56d4cee8783482

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $500.87
Realized PnL: $501.63
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 2.2%
Current value: $68.9
Potential payout: $3.13K
Potential profit: $3.06K
Multiplier: 45.45x
User PnL: -$125.95

Yes position

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1.9%
Current value: $10.64
Potential payout: $575.16
Potential profit: $564.51
Multiplier: 54.05x
User PnL: -$289.36

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$45

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $28.15
Potential payout: $375.34
Potential profit: $347.19
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$36.85

Yes position

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 3.3%
Current value: $10.88
Potential payout: $329.63
Potential profit: $318.75
Multiplier: 30.30x
User PnL: $0.38

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $322.08
Potential profit: $322.08
User PnL: -$247.19

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 26.5%
Current value: $77.38
Potential payout: $292
Potential profit: $214.62
Multiplier: 3.77x
User PnL: $4.38

Yes position

Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $27.5
Potential payout: $203.7
Potential profit: $176.2
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$27.5

Yes position

Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $181.82
Potential profit: $181.82
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $121.32
Potential profit: $121.32
User PnL: -$13.19

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 86%
Current value: $98.29
Potential payout: $114.29
Potential profit: $16
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: -$1.71

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 47.5%
Current value: $51.63
Potential payout: $108.7
Potential profit: $57.07
Multiplier: 2.11x
User PnL: $1.63

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $107.53
Potential profit: $107.53
User PnL: -$100

No position

Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 end of January?

Ends Jan 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $101.15
Potential profit: $101.15
User PnL: -$90

Yes position

Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 20.5%
Current value: $20.43
Potential payout: $99.65
Potential profit: $79.22
Multiplier: 4.88x
User PnL: -$62.28

No position

Will Salesforce (CRM) beat quarterly earnings?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $86.81
Potential profit: $86.81
User PnL: -$7

Yes position

Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $74.45
Potential profit: $74.45
User PnL: -$63

No position

Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 81.5%
Current value: $51.12
Potential payout: $62.73
Potential profit: $11.61
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $1.12

No position

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $57.96
Potential profit: $57.96
User PnL: -$14.77

No position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 96.8%
Current value: $55.95
Potential payout: $57.83
Potential profit: $1.88
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $0.95

No position

Will Trump say "America" or "American" 15+ times during Iowa speech?

Ends Jan 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $55.56
Potential profit: $55.56
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $54.88
Potential profit: $54.88
User PnL: -$45

Yes position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $36.97
Potential profit: $36.97
User PnL: -$33.15

No position

Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $34.74
Potential profit: $34.74
User PnL: -$26.25

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 18?

Ends Apr 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $63.9

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $58.8

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44.93

Yes position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $41.45

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.95

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.75

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.89

No position

Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on April 27?

Ends Apr 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.43

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?

Ends Apr 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.06

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $17.39

No position

Will Trump say "Tariff" or "Inflation" 20+ times during Iowa speech?

Ends Jan 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.33

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.89

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 25?

Ends Apr 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.43

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 11?

Ends May 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.41

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.4

No position

Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.76

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on April 26?

Ends Apr 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.51

Yes position

US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.11

No position

Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $420 end of February?

Ends Feb 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.71

Up position

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 28?

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.57

Seahawks position

Seahawks vs. Patriots

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.62

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 23?

Ends Apr 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.35

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.9

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.08

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?

Yes 3.1% 276.99 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET

Up 3% 33.33 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET

Up 2% 100 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET

Up 1% 100 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET

Up 24% 4.17 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET

Up 58% 3.45 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET

Up 95% 3.16 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET

Up 76% 1.32 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET

Up 30% 3.33 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET

Up 37% 1.96 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET

Up 51% 1.96 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET

Down 81% 1.23 shares